Spread: Giants (-9.5)

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (79%) · Eagles at 90¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 8

Giants11¢Eagles89¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 79%

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

$722.3

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 89.5¢

+25% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Giants11%

Eagles90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eagles11 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares14,656

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Giants3 traders

Total Value$710.03

Total Shares4,786

Combined PnL-$686.92

Eagles — 79%Giants — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrEagles 79% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 79% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Eaglesavg 73.7¢	$5.3K	$6.2K	+$856.55	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
AN Anon455	Eaglesavg 69.5¢	$2.4K	$2.9K	+$544.88	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
Painfulvoid	Eaglesavg 70.9¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$176.53	53% 2026-1767 (3793)
38 38791873984189	Eaglesavg 69.3¢	$877.74	$919.15	+$41.41	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Eaglesavg 70¢	$350	$450	+$100	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
betdgeCTR	Giantsavg 33¢	$725	$319	-$406	49% 1422-1474 (2896)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Giantsavg 27.2¢	$593.94	$317.03	-$276.92	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
BO BoomLaLa	Eaglesavg 70¢	$191.54	$198.86	+$7.32	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
PA Pan9X<$100	Eaglesavg 66.3¢	$70.29	$81.9	+$22.26	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Giantsavg 28¢	$78	$74	-$4	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
alpheclabs2<$100	Eaglesavg 68¢	$22.64	$28.47	+$5.83	47% 1624-1831 (3455)
GH ghorrock<$100	Eaglesavg 67¢	$10.05	$13.5	+$3.45	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Eaglesavg 66¢	$8.17	$11.14	+$2.97	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
BA Bayupati<$100	Eaglesavg 69¢	$6	$7.08	+$1.09	49% 281-298 (579)

nigiri99

Eagles

Invested

$5,344.18

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$856.55

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

Anon455

Eagles

Invested

$2,361.27

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$544.88

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Painfulvoid

Eagles

Invested

$1,972.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$176.53

Record

53%

2026-1767 (3793)

38791873984189

Eagles

Invested

$877.74

Value

$919.15

PnL

+$41.41

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Eagles

Invested

$350

Value

$450

PnL

+$100

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

betdgeCTR

Giants

Invested

$725

Value

$319

PnL

-$406

Record

49%

1422-1474 (2896)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Giants

Invested

$593.94

Value

$317.03

PnL

-$276.92

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

BoomLaLa

Eagles

Invested

$191.54

Value

$198.86

PnL

+$7.32

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

Pan9X<$100

Eagles

Invested

$70.29

Value

$81.9

PnL

+$22.26

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Giants

Invested

$78

Value

$74

PnL

-$4

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

alpheclabs2<$100

Eagles

Invested

$22.64

Value

$28.47

PnL

+$5.83

Record

47%

1624-1831 (3455)

ghorrock<$100

Eagles

Invested

$10.05

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$3.45

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

6512395314597884<$100

Eagles

Invested

$8.17

Value

$11.14

PnL

+$2.97

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Bayupati<$100

Eagles

Invested

Value

$7.08

PnL

+$1.09

Record

49%

281-298 (579)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrEagles 79% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 79% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.