Spread: Giants (-6.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (55%) · Eagles at 82¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 8

Giants18¢Eagles82¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$367.72

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 82¢

+37% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants18%

Eagles82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eagles6 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares12,080

Combined PnL+$763.21

Giants5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,219

Combined PnL-$395.49

Eagles — 55%Giants — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Giants) and the top 1000 (12 on Eagles) disagree here.

whaleGiants 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrEagles 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Eagles 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Eaglesavg 62¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$234.15	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
ME metski29	Eaglesavg 53.9¢	$1.7K	$2.4K	+$552.24	45% 374-453 (827)
38 38791873984189	Eaglesavg 62.9¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	+$252.25	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
TA takeormakeCTR	Giantsavg 37¢	$882.06	$867.6	-$14.46	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Eaglesavg 60¢	$659.2	$841.12	+$181.92	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Giantsavg 41.5¢	$936.28	$611.4	-$324.88	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 41.5¢	$830	$470	-$360
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 57.5¢	$106.28	$141.4	+$35.12
BO BoomLaLa	Eaglesavg 61¢	$171.25	$177.5	+$6.25	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
RN1CTR	Giantsavg 46¢	$253.83	$99.32	-$154.5	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Giantsavg 47¢	$235	$90	-$145	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Giantsavg 48¢	$99.96	$37.49	-$62.47	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
PA Pan9X<$100	Eaglesavg 57.3¢	$50.88	$26.84	+$4.7	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Giantsavg 46.6¢	$31.04	$11.99	-$19.05	48% 2081-2289 (4370)

SunlineTicker

Eagles

Invested

$4,305.35

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$234.15

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

metski29

Eagles

Invested

$1,673.17

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$552.24

Record

45%

374-453 (827)

38791873984189

Eagles

Invested

$1,753.02

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$252.25

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

takeormakeCTR

Giants

Invested

$882.06

Value

$867.6

PnL

-$14.46

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Eagles

Invested

$659.2

Value

$841.12

PnL

+$181.92

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Anon455ARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$936.28

Value

$611.4

PnL

-$324.88

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Both legs:

Giants$83041.5¢-$360

Eagles$106.2857.5¢+$35.12

BoomLaLa

Eagles

Invested

$171.25

Value

$177.5

PnL

+$6.25

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

RN1CTR

Giants

Invested

$253.83

Value

$99.32

PnL

-$154.5

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Giants

Invested

$235

Value

$90

PnL

-$145

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$99.96

Value

$37.49

PnL

-$62.47

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Pan9X<$100

Eagles

Invested

$50.88

Value

$26.84

PnL

+$4.7

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$31.04

Value

$11.99

PnL

-$19.05

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Giants) and the top 1000 (12 on Eagles) disagree here.

whaleGiants 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrEagles 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Eagles 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.