Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 64.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 76¢ · $816 held · ended Nov 15

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$816.33

Combined PnL

$51.96

Smart Money Entry

81.9¢ → 75.5¢

-8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$577.98

Total Shares680

Combined PnL+$44.25

Over5 traders

Total Value$238.36

Total Shares1,356

Combined PnL+$7.72

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Underavg 81.6¢	$1.2K	$431.81	+$44.08	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 17¢	$138.37	$146.51	+$8.14	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	Underavg 83¢	$79.97	$78.05	-$1.93	17% 34-167 (201)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$64.11	$67.88	+$3.77	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 82¢	$36.9	$38.48	+$1.58	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 84¢	$29.12	$29.64	+$0.52	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$22.81	$19.46	-$3.35	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$4.25	$3.62	-$0.63	44% 337-422 (759)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$1.1	$0.88	-$0.21	55% 1968-1643 (3611)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,181.08

Value

$431.81

PnL

+$44.08

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$138.37

Value

$146.51

PnL

+$8.14

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

Under

Invested

$79.97

Value

$78.05

PnL

-$1.93

Record

17%

34-167 (201)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$64.11

Value

$67.88

PnL

+$3.77

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$36.9

Value

$38.48

PnL

+$1.58

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$29.12

Value

$29.64

PnL

+$0.52

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.81

Value

$19.46

PnL

-$3.35

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.25

Value

$3.62

PnL

-$0.63

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.21

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.