Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 58.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 61¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

-$883.18

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 60.5¢

-11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares15,792

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Under7 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares9,621

Combined PnL+$588.24

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shaillakhaniCTR	Overavg 32.7¢	$5.0K	$3.5K	$-1.5K	7% 16-211 (227)
GA Gaditima	Underavg 66.5¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$300	49% 386-404 (790)
AN Anon455	Underavg 69¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$99.93	49% 482-498 (980)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 69.8¢	$937.06	$993.93	+$56.86	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 68¢	$722.5	$786.25	+$63.75	51% 568-545 (1113)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 68¢	$680	$740	+$60	55% 1968-1643 (3611)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 28¢	$145.08	$160.62	+$15.54	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 70¢	$140	$148	+$8	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 70¢	$10.5	$10.2	-$0.3	50% 2177-2197 (4374)

shaillakhaniCTR

Over

Invested

$5,000

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

16-211 (227)

Gaditima

Under

Invested

$2,660

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$300

Record

49%

386-404 (790)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$1,380.45

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$99.93

Record

49%

482-498 (980)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$937.06

Value

$993.93

PnL

+$56.86

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$722.5

Value

$786.25

PnL

+$63.75

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$680

Value

$740

PnL

+$60

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$145.08

Value

$160.62

PnL

+$15.54

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$140

Value

$148

PnL

+$8

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.