Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 56.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 90¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$158.61

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 90¢

+40% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,999

Combined PnL+$402.13

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares5,012

Combined PnL-$243.52

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-41 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 65¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$402.38	52% 2694-2508 (5202)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 35¢	$1.1K	$811.08	-$239.82	51% 568-545 (1113)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 34¢	$317.14	$317.14	-$0	47% 1186-1362 (2548)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 35¢	$175	$170	-$5	55% 1968-1643 (3611)
BO BoomLaLa	Underavg 66¢	$165	$165	+$0	39% 234-370 (604)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 34¢	$159.6	$159.8	+$0.2	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Underavg 50¢	$3.5K	$132	+$0	64% 145-81 (226)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 53¢	$26.5	$26.25	-$0.25	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 32.9¢	$14.8	$15.3	+$0.5	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$13.2	$13.6	+$0.4	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$6.6	$6.8	+$0.2	38% 1342-2205 (3547)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$2,274.34

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$402.38

Record

52%

2694-2508 (5202)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$1,050.9

Value

$811.08

PnL

-$239.82

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$317.14

Value

$317.14

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

1186-1362 (2548)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$175

Value

$170

PnL

-$5

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

BoomLaLa

Under

Invested

$165

Value

$165

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$159.6

Value

$159.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Under

Invested

$3,450

Value

$132

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

145-81 (226)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$26.5

Value

$26.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.8

Value

$15.3

PnL

+$0.5

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.2

Value

$13.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-41 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.