Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 54.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 81¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over20¢Under80¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$277.01

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 80.5¢

+30% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over20%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares6,265

Combined PnL+$655.65

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,448

Combined PnL-$378.64

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 63¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$573.8	52% 2694-2508 (5202)
CM cm2897	Underavg 74.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$51.56	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 31.8¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$379.02	51% 568-545 (1113)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 50¢	$503	$487.43	-$15.57	77% 271-81 (352)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	55% 1968-1643 (3611)
tradecraft	Underavg 47.5¢	$96.49	$135.11	+$38.62	34% 465-896 (1361)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 61¢	$42.74	$44.14	+$1.4	69% 1738-776 (2514)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$44.46	$43.89	-$0.57	44% 337-422 (759)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 49.3¢	$19.39	$22.74	+$3.35	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$12.21	$12.87	+$0.66	35% 138-251 (389)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$3.7	$3.9	+$0.2	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$1.93	$2.02	+$0.09	50% 2841-2879 (5720)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$1,763.37

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$573.8

Record

52%

2694-2508 (5202)

cm2897

Under

Invested

$1,241.17

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$51.56

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$1,393.88

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$379.02

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$503

Value

$487.43

PnL

-$15.57

Record

77%

271-81 (352)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

tradecraft

Under

Invested

$96.49

Value

$135.11

PnL

+$38.62

Record

34%

465-896 (1361)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$42.74

Value

$44.14

PnL

+$1.4

Record

69%

1738-776 (2514)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.46

Value

$43.89

PnL

-$0.57

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$19.39

Value

$22.74

PnL

+$3.35

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

OddstormCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.21

Value

$12.87

PnL

+$0.66

Record

35%

138-251 (389)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.93

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.