Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 44.5

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 63¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

-$56.8

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 62.5¢

+29% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares13,882

Combined PnL+$899.48

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares7,154

Combined PnL-$956.28

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 64% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CM cm2897	Underavg 48.8¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	+$524.02	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 51.5¢	$6.1K	$2.4K	-$897.25	51% 568-545 (1113)
TKD44	Underavg 51.3¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$300.17	4% 4-102 (106)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$62.43	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 51.4¢	$1.8K	$343.16	-$16.29	55% 1969-1643 (3612)
MR MrClaude11CTR	Overavg 71¢	$362.34	$296	-$66.34	— 2-9 (11)
DR DreamwireCTR	Overavg 50.9¢	$134.79	$151.04	+$16.25	77% 273-81 (354)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$100.06	$91.18	-$5.03	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$53.95	$51.34	-$2.61
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.8¢	$40.04	$39.84	-$2.42
tradecraftCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$92.08	$78.93	-$13.15	34% 476-910 (1386)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 28¢	$45.3	$69.57	+$24.27	69% 1738-776 (2514)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$26.46	$33.52	+$7.06	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 44.2¢	$33.98	$31.14	-$2.84	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$14.14	$16.24	+$2.1	50% 657-657 (1314)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 35¢	$3.51	$4.31	+$0.8	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 11.9¢	$0.76	$2.74	+$1.99	39% 1579-2471 (4050)

cm2897

Under

Invested

$5,011.19

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$524.02

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$6,054.9

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$897.25

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

TKD44

Under

Invested

$1,596.56

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$300.17

Record

4-102 (106)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,411.14

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$62.43

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,800.16

Value

$343.16

PnL

-$16.29

Record

55%

1969-1643 (3612)

MrClaude11CTR

Over

Invested

$362.34

Value

$296

PnL

-$66.34

Record

—

2-9 (11)

DreamwireCTR

Over

Invested

$134.79

Value

$151.04

PnL

+$16.25

Record

77%

273-81 (354)

NotJumpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$100.06

Value

$91.18

PnL

-$5.03

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Both legs:

Under$53.9551¢-$2.61

Over$40.0451.8¢-$2.42

tradecraftCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$92.08

Value

$78.93

PnL

-$13.15

Record

34%

476-910 (1386)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$45.3

Value

$69.57

PnL

+$24.27

Record

69%

1738-776 (2514)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.46

Value

$33.52

PnL

+$7.06

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.98

Value

$31.14

PnL

-$2.84

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$14.14

Value

$16.24

PnL

+$2.1

Record

50%

657-657 (1314)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$3.51

Value

$4.31

PnL

+$0.8

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$0.76

Value

$2.74

PnL

+$1.99

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 64% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.