Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 42.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 56¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$268.77

Smart Money Entry

28.3¢ → 55.5¢

+96% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$777.81

Total Shares1,468

Combined PnL+$362.71

Over5 traders

Total Value$257.96

Total Shares543

Combined PnL-$93.94

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Underavg 28¢	$208.9	$395.42	+$186.52	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
nigiri99	Underavg 28¢	$196.28	$371.53	+$175.25	50% 747-737 (1484)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Overavg 47¢	$232.66	$255.05	+$22.38	51% 568-545 (1113)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$188	$188	+$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 35.3¢	$44.66	$67.05	+$22.38
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 72¢	$190.41	$125.76	-$64.66	48% 472-515 (987)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 49.8¢	$63.38	$59.87	-$3.51	55% 1969-1643 (3612)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Overavg 66¢	$66.33	$47.74	-$18.59	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$22.4	$18.8	-$3.6	77% 273-81 (354)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Overavg 76¢	$9.37	$5.8	-$3.58	34% 476-910 (1386)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5	$5.1	+$0.1	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 44¢	$3.96	$4.73	+$0.77	50% 657-657 (1314)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 49¢	$0.96	$1.04	+$0.08	50% 2851-2894 (5745)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$208.9

Value

$395.42

PnL

+$186.52

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$196.28

Value

$371.53

PnL

+$175.25

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$232.66

Value

$255.05

PnL

+$22.38

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

Both legs:

Over$18847¢+$0

Under$44.6635.3¢+$22.38

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$190.41

Value

$125.76

PnL

-$64.66

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.38

Value

$59.87

PnL

-$3.51

Record

55%

1969-1643 (3612)

cm2897CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.33

Value

$47.74

PnL

-$18.59

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.4

Value

$18.8

PnL

-$3.6

Record

77%

273-81 (354)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.37

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$3.58

Record

34%

476-910 (1386)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$3.96

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.77

Record

50%

657-657 (1314)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$0.96

Value

$1.04

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.