Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 34.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 83¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Over83¢Under17¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$515.38

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 83¢

-8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares6,037

Combined PnL+$114.42

Under4 traders

Total Value$942.05

Total Shares6,532

Combined PnL+$400.96

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 91¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$91.75	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Underavg 9.1¢	$551.61	$908.14	+$356.53	52% 2694-2508 (5202)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 91¢	$415.46	$402.34	-$13.11	50% 4045-4053 (8098)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 91¢	$546	$277.35	+$22.35	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
tradecraft	Overavg 82¢	$186.04	$163.99	+$11.24	34% 476-910 (1386)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 90¢	$90.01	$94.41	+$4.39	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 88¢	$32.27	$30.07	-$2.2	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 4.1¢	$260.28	$18.81	+$36.43	55% 1969-1643 (3612)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$6	$11.33	+$5.32	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 2.2¢	$1.1	$3.78	+$2.68	50% 1136-1139 (2275)

RN1

Over

Invested

$4,552.7

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$91.75

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Under

Invested

$551.61

Value

$908.14

PnL

+$356.53

Record

52%

2694-2508 (5202)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$415.46

Value

$402.34

PnL

-$13.11

Record

50%

4045-4053 (8098)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$546

Value

$277.35

PnL

+$22.35

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

tradecraft

Over

Invested

$186.04

Value

$163.99

PnL

+$11.24

Record

34%

476-910 (1386)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$90.01

Value

$94.41

PnL

+$4.39

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$32.27

Value

$30.07

PnL

-$2.2

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$260.28

Value

$18.81

PnL

+$36.43

Record

55%

1969-1643 (3612)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$11.33

PnL

+$5.32

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.1

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$2.68

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.