Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Patriots, while the market favors Lions (89%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Lions (-8.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (56%) · Patriots at 12¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Lions89¢Patriots11¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Patriots

Consensus Traders

Patriots 56%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 11.5¢

-80% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 89%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lions89%

Patriots12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Patriots5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares7,086

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Lions4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,946

Combined PnL+$324.51

Patriots — 56%Lions — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Patriotsavg 60.3¢	$3.9K	$2.1K	$-1.5K	51% 568-545 (1113)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000	Lionsavg 40.3¢	$915.98	$1.7K	+$787.96	29% 96-237 (333)
CM cm2897	Lionsavg 39.6¢	$1.5K	$990.93	-$462.93	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Patriotsavg 49.6¢	$545.16	$245	-$92.5	55% 1968-1643 (3611)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Patriotsavg 40¢	$177.6	$175.38	-$2.22	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Patriotsavg 48¢	$110.89	$58.91	-$51.98	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 41¢	$41	$39.5	-$1.5	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
tradecraft<$100	Lionsavg 60¢	$1.5	$1.34	-$0.16	34% 465-896 (1361)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Lionsavg 46¢	$0.85	$0.5	-$0.35	39% 1558-2440 (3998)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Patriots

Invested

$3,940.07

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

Lions

Invested

$915.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$787.96

Record

29%

96-237 (333)

cm2897

Lions

Invested

$1,453.86

Value

$990.93

PnL

-$462.93

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Patriots

Invested

$545.16

Value

$245

PnL

-$92.5

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Patriots

Invested

$177.6

Value

$175.38

PnL

-$2.22

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

MadridTimeCTR

Patriots

Invested

$110.89

Value

$58.91

PnL

-$51.98

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$41

Value

$39.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

tradecraft<$100

Lions

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.34

PnL

-$0.16

Record

34%

465-896 (1361)

topdogbigboi<$100

Lions

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.35

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 89%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.