Spread: Lions (-5.5)

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (31%) · Lions at 94¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Lions94¢Patriots6¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

$241.86

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 93.5¢

+65% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions94%

Patriots7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions4 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares7,609

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Patriots9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares6,561

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Lions — 31%Patriots — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Lionsavg 56.6¢	$3.2K	$5.0K	+$1.8K	59% 1182-828 (2010)
CM cm2897	Lionsavg 48.5¢	$718.61	$997.67	+$279.06	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Lionsavg 68.3¢	$458.27	$607.26	+$148.99	51% 568-545 (1113)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Patriotsavg 43.2¢	$1.4K	$364.25	$-1.0K	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Patriotsavg 41.7¢	$362	$330	-$32	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 41.7¢	$250	$195	-$55
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 56¢	$112	$135	+$23
VE VenusianCTR	Patriotsavg 44.2¢	$863.48	$224.52	-$638.96	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Patriotsavg 47.7¢	$240.48	$187.46	-$53.02	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Lionsavg 60¢	$165.61	$171.2	+$5.59	55% 1968-1643 (3611)
38 38791873984189CTR	Patriotsavg 36.5¢	$830.77	$137.09	-$66.44	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 41¢	$61.5	$93.75	+$32.25	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 51.2¢	$56.92	$25.23	-$14.38	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
AN Anon455CTR	Patriotsavg 35.7¢	$621.91	$22.29	-$241.08	49% 482-498 (980)
RN1CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 54¢	$15.74	$18.22	+$2.48	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 32¢	$16	$16.25	+$0.25	50% 1122-1124 (2246)

primm

Lions

Invested

$3,175.91

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

cm2897

Lions

Invested

$718.61

Value

$997.67

PnL

+$279.06

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Lions

Invested

$458.27

Value

$607.26

PnL

+$148.99

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

LightParadoxCTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,367.57

Value

$364.25

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Patriots

Invested

$362

Value

$330

PnL

-$32

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

Both legs:

Patriots$25041.7¢-$55

Lions$11256¢+$23

VenusianCTR

Patriots

Invested

$863.48

Value

$224.52

PnL

-$638.96

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

topdogbigboiCTR

Patriots

Invested

$240.48

Value

$187.46

PnL

-$53.02

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Lions

Invested

$165.61

Value

$171.2

PnL

+$5.59

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

38791873984189CTR

Patriots

Invested

$830.77

Value

$137.09

PnL

-$66.44

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$61.5

Value

$93.75

PnL

+$32.25

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$56.92

Value

$25.23

PnL

-$14.38

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

Anon455CTR

Patriots

Invested

$621.91

Value

$22.29

PnL

-$241.08

Record

49%

482-498 (980)

RN1CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$15.74

Value

$18.22

PnL

+$2.48

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$16

Value

$16.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.