Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Patriots, while the market favors Lions (96%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Lions (-4.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (56%) · Patriots at 4.5¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Lions96¢Patriots4¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Patriots

Consensus Traders

Patriots 56%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$880.58

Smart Money Entry

45.2¢ → 4.5¢

-90% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 96%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions96%

Patriots5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares5,643

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Patriots5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares8,170

Combined PnL-$770.12

Lions — 44%Patriots — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CM cm2897	Lionsavg 54.6¢	$2.5K	$4.3K	+$1.7K	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Patriotsavg 45¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$644.63	51% 568-545 (1113)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Lionsavg 54¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$167.46	49% 482-498 (980)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 54¢	$1.1K	$800	-$280
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 45¢	$337.62	$450.16	+$112.54
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lionsavg 53.2¢	$659.07	$521.2	-$47.25	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 50.3¢	$226.18	$270	+$35.42
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 53.2¢	$333.87	$251.2	-$82.67
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Lionsavg 84.9¢	$328.74	$331.02	+$2.29	55% 1968-1643 (3611)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Patriotsavg 46.5¢	$1.7K	$314.5	$-1.4K	48% 224-246 (470)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Patriotsavg 26.8¢	$226.16	$234.97	+$8.81	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 54¢	$108	$171	+$63
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 26.8¢	$118.16	$63.97	-$54.19
alpheclabs2	Lionsavg 51¢	$201.96	$158.4	-$43.56	45% 366-448 (814)
TO topdogbigboi	Lionsavg 54¢	$108	$80	-$28	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
RN1CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 22¢	$18.51	$18.93	+$0.42	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 35.7¢	$39.58	$8.33	-$6.42	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 21.8¢	$11.16	$7.42	-$3.74	50% 1122-1124 (2246)

cm2897

Lions

Invested

$2,543.35

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,933.9

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$644.63

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

Anon455ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$1,417.62

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$167.46

Record

49%

482-498 (980)

Both legs:

Lions$1,08054¢-$280

Patriots$337.6245¢+$112.54

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$659.07

Value

$521.2

PnL

-$47.25

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

Both legs:

Patriots$226.1850.3¢+$35.42

Lions$333.8753.2¢-$82.67

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Lions

Invested

$328.74

Value

$331.02

PnL

+$2.29

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

glennyorkshireCTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,719.5

Value

$314.5

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

48%

224-246 (470)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Patriots

Invested

$226.16

Value

$234.97

PnL

+$8.81

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

Both legs:

Lions$10854¢+$63

Patriots$118.1626.8¢-$54.19

alpheclabs2

Lions

Invested

$201.96

Value

$158.4

PnL

-$43.56

Record

45%

366-448 (814)

topdogbigboi

Lions

Invested

$108

Value

$80

PnL

-$28

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

RN1CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$18.51

Value

$18.93

PnL

+$0.42

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$39.58

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$6.42

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$11.16

Value

$7.42

PnL

-$3.74

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 96%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.