Spread: Lions (-21.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (60%) · Lions at 72¢ · $62K held · ended Nov 15

Lions72¢Patriots28¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 60%

Total Value

$61.6K

Combined PnL

$6.5K

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 71.5¢

+33% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions72%

Patriots28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions6 traders

Total Value$43.7K

Total Shares54,500

Combined PnL+$14.3K

Patriots4 traders

Total Value$17.9K

Total Shares56,385

Combined PnL$-7.8K

Lions — 60%Patriots — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePatriots 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLions 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Lions 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EdZachary	Lionsavg 54¢	$27.0K	$40.5K	+$13.5K	12% 16-123 (139)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Patriotsavg 46¢	$14.0K	$9.9K	$-4.1K	52% 2694-2508 (5202)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Patriotsavg 46¢	$6.5K	$4.6K	$-1.9K	50% 657-657 (1314)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Patriotsavg 43.8¢	$5.0K	$3.3K	$-1.8K	51% 568-545 (1113)
CM cm2897	Lionsavg 52.2¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$441.4	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Lionsavg 55.5¢	$893.33	$1.1K	+$248.44	55% 1969-1643 (3612)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Lionsavg 51¢	$242.25	$337.25	+$95	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
NO NotJump<$100	Lionsavg 55¢	$99.75	$93	+$30	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
tradecraftCTR	Patriotsavg 46¢	$115	$81.25	-$33.75	34% 476-910 (1386)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Lionsavg 31¢	$2.98	$6.82	+$3.84	39% 1579-2471 (4050)

EdZachary

Lions

Invested

$27,000

Value

$40.5K

PnL

+$13.5K

Record

12%

16-123 (139)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Patriots

Invested

$14,036.42

Value

$9.9K

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

52%

2694-2508 (5202)

justaluckydudeCTR

Patriots

Invested

$6,486.18

Value

$4.6K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

50%

657-657 (1314)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Patriots

Invested

$5,044.86

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

cm2897

Lions

Invested

$1,195.3

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$441.4

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Lions

Invested

$893.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$248.44

Record

55%

1969-1643 (3612)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Lions

Invested

$242.25

Value

$337.25

PnL

+$95

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

NotJump<$100

Lions

Invested

$99.75

Value

$93

PnL

+$30

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

tradecraftCTR

Patriots

Invested

$115

Value

$81.25

PnL

-$33.75

Record

34%

476-910 (1386)

topdogbigboi<$100

Lions

Invested

$2.98

Value

$6.82

PnL

+$3.84

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePatriots 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLions 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Lions 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.