Spread: Lions (-20.5)

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (63%) · Lions at 76¢ · $39K held · ended Nov 15

Lions76¢Patriots24¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 63%

Total Value

$38.9K

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 75.5¢

+30% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions76%

Patriots25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions10 traders

Total Value$29.3K

Total Shares37,265

Combined PnL+$7.9K

Patriots6 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares46,864

Combined PnL$-10.5K

Lions — 63%Patriots — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLions 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpPatriots 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLions 50% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedLions 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Lions 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Lionsavg 56¢	$11.3K	$13.0K	+$3.9K	51% 568-545 (1113)
CUTJALENHURTS	Lionsavg 57¢	$3.8K	$5.3K	+$1.5K	52% 2694-2508 (5202)
AN Anon455	Lionsavg 61.1¢	$7.4K	$5.2K	+$1.1K	49% 482-499 (981)
BI big8betzCTR	Patriotsavg 39.1¢	$9.4K	$4.9K	$-4.5K	52% 84-79 (163)
BA bands1CTR	Patriotsavg 47.7¢	$6.8K	$2.9K	$-3.9K	51% 360-345 (705)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Lionsavg 56.6¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$615.54	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
PR primmCTR	Patriotsavg 44.1¢	$3.2K	$1.5K	$-1.7K	59% 1182-828 (2010)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Lionsavg 53.7¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$491.55	55% 1969-1643 (3612)
RN1	Lionsavg 79¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
TO topdogbigboi	Lionsavg 58.5¢	$624.14	$842.28	+$218.14	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
AU Aurelius7CTR	Patriotsavg 43.9¢	$400	$186.6	-$213.4	5% 7-142 (149)
NO NotJump	Lionsavg 55.2¢	$146.98	$103.75	+$29.34	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
TimeTravelerCTR	Patriotsavg 44¢	$132	$61.5	-$70.5	24% 29-90 (119)
CM cm2897CTR	Patriotsavg 87.4¢	$199.16	$47.88	-$151.28	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lionsavg 79¢	$17.38	$17.38	+$0	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
38 38791873984189<$100	Lionsavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.95	+$0.9	48% 3968-4327 (8295)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Lions

Invested

$11,348.99

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

CUTJALENHURTS

Lions

Invested

$3,816.24

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

52%

2694-2508 (5202)

Anon455

Lions

Invested

$7,372.42

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

49%

482-499 (981)

big8betzCTR

Patriots

Invested

$9,372.17

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

52%

84-79 (163)

bands1CTR

Patriots

Invested

$6,803.32

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

51%

360-345 (705)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Lions

Invested

$1,557.26

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$615.54

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

primmCTR

Patriots

Invested

$3,164.25

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Lions

Invested

$1,315.82

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$491.55

Record

55%

1969-1643 (3612)

RN1

Lions

Invested

$1,194.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

topdogbigboi

Lions

Invested

$624.14

Value

$842.28

PnL

+$218.14

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

Aurelius7CTR

Patriots

Invested

$400

Value

$186.6

PnL

-$213.4

Record

7-142 (149)

NotJump

Lions

Invested

$146.98

Value

$103.75

PnL

+$29.34

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

TimeTravelerCTR

Patriots

Invested

$132

Value

$61.5

PnL

-$70.5

Record

24%

29-90 (119)

cm2897CTR

Patriots

Invested

$199.16

Value

$47.88

PnL

-$151.28

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

Pan9X<$100

Lions

Invested

$17.38

Value

$17.38

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

38791873984189<$100

Lions

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.9

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLions 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpPatriots 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLions 50% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedLions 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Lions 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.