Spread: Lions (-1.5)

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (15%) · Lions at 50¢ · $111K held · ended Nov 15

Lions50¢Patriots50¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 15%

Total Value

$110.6K

Combined PnL

$7.6K

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 50¢

-9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

2 of 13 top traders (15%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions50%

Patriots50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions2 traders

Total Value$54.2K

Total Shares101,373

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Patriots11 traders

Total Value$56.4K

Total Shares104,805

Combined PnL+$9.2K

Lions — 15%Patriots — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLions 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPatriots 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedPatriots 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Patriots 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Lionsavg 55¢	$55.8K	$54.2K	$-1.5K	42% 621-853 (1474)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Patriotsavg 45¢	$29.2K	$35.0K	+$5.8K	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
TA takeormake	Patriotsavg 45¢	$12.5K	$15.0K	+$2.5K	57% 3682-2767 (6449)
VeryLucky888	Patriotsavg 45¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$450.05	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
38 38791873984189	Patriotsavg 45¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$199.29	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Patriotsavg 44¢	$465.12	$570.83	+$105.71	48% 720-766 (1486)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Patriotsavg 49.9¢	$519.34	$483.56	-$35.78	51% 568-545 (1113)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Patriotsavg 45¢	$379.8	$455.76	+$75.96	48% 471-508 (979)
NO NotJump<$100	Patriotsavg 46.5¢	$92.2	$62.8	+$11.1	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
tradecraft<$100	Patriotsavg 44¢	$22	$27	+$5	34% 465-896 (1361)
PA Pan9X<$100	Patriotsavg 44.9¢	$38.88	$26.81	+$7.92	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
AN Anon455<$100	Patriotsavg 46¢	$3.61	$4.24	+$0.63	49% 482-498 (980)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Lionsavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.68	+$0.38	50% 4044-4051 (8095)

BreakTheBank

Lions

Invested

$55,752.21

Value

$54.2K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

42%

621-853 (1474)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Patriots

Invested

$29,204.47

Value

$35.0K

PnL

+$5.8K

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

takeormake

Patriots

Invested

$12,500.1

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

57%

3682-2767 (6449)

VeryLucky888

Patriots

Invested

$2,252.7

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$450.05

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

38791873984189

Patriots

Invested

$1,793.64

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$199.29

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

Multicoloured-Serf

Patriots

Invested

$465.12

Value

$570.83

PnL

+$105.71

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Patriots

Invested

$519.34

Value

$483.56

PnL

-$35.78

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Patriots

Invested

$379.8

Value

$455.76

PnL

+$75.96

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

NotJump<$100

Patriots

Invested

$92.2

Value

$62.8

PnL

+$11.1

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

tradecraft<$100

Patriots

Invested

$22

Value

$27

PnL

+$5

Record

34%

465-896 (1361)

Pan9X<$100

Patriots

Invested

$38.88

Value

$26.81

PnL

+$7.92

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

Anon455<$100

Patriots

Invested

$3.61

Value

$4.24

PnL

+$0.63

Record

49%

482-498 (980)

6512395314597884<$100

Lions

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.38

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lions

2 of 13 top traders (15%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLions 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPatriots 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedPatriots 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Patriots 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.