Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Patriots, while the market favors Lions (76%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Lions (-14.5)

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (69%) · Patriots at 25¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 15

Lions76¢Patriots24¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Patriots

Consensus Traders

Patriots 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

$849.79

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 24.5¢

-51% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lions76%

Patriots25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions4 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares10,837

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Patriots9 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares12,540

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Lions — 31%Patriots — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Lionsavg 53.2¢	$3.6K	$4.6K	+$980.21	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Lionsavg 47.5¢	$2.4K	$3.4K	+$978.88	51% 568-545 (1113)
AN Anon455CTR	Patriotsavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$10.64	49% 482-498 (980)
CM cm2897CTR	Patriotsavg 54¢	$2.0K	$899.89	$-1.1K	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
PR primmCTR	Patriotsavg 37.9¢	$2.4K	$839.68	+$527.2	59% 1182-828 (2010)
38 38791873984189CTR	Patriotsavg 62.8¢	$684.72	$558.36	-$76.31	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
BI biying88888CTR	Patriotsavg 54¢	$815.4	$551.15	-$264.25	44% 244-314 (558)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Patriotsavg 64.1¢	$671.46	$522.9	-$148.56	55% 1968-1643 (3611)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 62.7¢	$316.69	$315.43	-$1.26
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 64.1¢	$354.78	$207.47	-$147.3
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Patriotsavg 54.9¢	$585.32	$389.49	-$195.83	43% 244-324 (568)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Patriotsavg 55.7¢	$440.63	$295.77	-$144.86	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 61.8¢	$130.34	$159.22	+$28.89
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 55.7¢	$310.3	$136.55	-$173.75
NO NotJump	Lionsavg 61.6¢	$125.7	$87.18	+$6.66	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Patriotsavg 62.6¢	$109.72	$74.06	-$35.66	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 61.5¢	$37.25	$45.72	+$8.47
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 62.6¢	$72.47	$28.34	-$44.13
PA Pan9X<$100	Lionsavg 52.1¢	$97.25	$17.02	-$10.49	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
dips.CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 63¢	$11.97	$12.54	+$0.57	48% 1300-1386 (2686)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 39¢	$10.4	$6.53	-$3.87	57% 3682-2767 (6449)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 60¢	$3	$4.2	+$1.2	46% 972-1163 (2135)

RN1

Lions

Invested

$3,574.14

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$980.21

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Lions

Invested

$2,390.75

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$978.88

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

Anon455CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,024.04

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.64

Record

49%

482-498 (980)

cm2897CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,983.42

Value

$899.89

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

primmCTR

Patriots

Invested

$2,391.35

Value

$839.68

PnL

+$527.2

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

38791873984189CTR

Patriots

Invested

$684.72

Value

$558.36

PnL

-$76.31

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

biying88888CTR

Patriots

Invested

$815.4

Value

$551.15

PnL

-$264.25

Record

44%

244-314 (558)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Patriots

Invested

$671.46

Value

$522.9

PnL

-$148.56

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

Both legs:

Lions$316.6962.7¢-$1.26

Patriots$354.7864.1¢-$147.3

NatoAlfistaCTR

Patriots

Invested

$585.32

Value

$389.49

PnL

-$195.83

Record

43%

244-324 (568)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Patriots

Invested

$440.63

Value

$295.77

PnL

-$144.86

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

Both legs:

Lions$130.3461.8¢+$28.89

Patriots$310.355.7¢-$173.75

NotJump

Lions

Invested

$125.7

Value

$87.18

PnL

+$6.66

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Patriots

Invested

$109.72

Value

$74.06

PnL

-$35.66

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

Both legs:

Lions$37.2561.5¢+$8.47

Patriots$72.4762.6¢-$44.13

Pan9X<$100

Lions

Invested

$97.25

Value

$17.02

PnL

-$10.49

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

dips.CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$11.97

Value

$12.54

PnL

+$0.57

Record

48%

1300-1386 (2686)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$10.4

Value

$6.53

PnL

-$3.87

Record

57%

3682-2767 (6449)

lryyyCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$1.2

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.