Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Patriots, while the market favors Lions (81%). 8 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Lions (-13.5)

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (53%) · Patriots at 20¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 15

Lions81¢Patriots19¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Patriots

Consensus Traders

Patriots 53%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.2K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 19.5¢

-63% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 81%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions81%

Patriots20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions7 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares10,276

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Patriots8 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares11,964

Combined PnL-$868.31

Lions — 47%Patriots — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydude	Lionsavg 37¢	$1.9K	$3.5K	+$1.6K	50% 657-657 (1314)
ON Onomatopoeia777CTR	Patriotsavg 63¢	$3.1K	$3.3K	+$150	24% 13-41 (54)
RN1ARB<$100	Patriotsavg 51.4¢	$3.3K	$2.8K	-$471.94	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 62.7¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$8.49
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 51.4¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$480.43
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Lionsavg 49.6¢	$1.5K	$2.3K	+$852.09	51% 568-545 (1113)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Lionsavg 68¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$7.5	55% 1968-1643 (3611)
PR primmCTR	Patriotsavg 35.2¢	$1.5K	$917.3	-$586.31	59% 1182-828 (2010)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Patriotsavg 52.9¢	$1.1K	$804.17	-$308.27	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 52.9¢	$850.89	$522.36	-$328.53
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 62.6¢	$261.55	$281.81	+$20.26
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Lionsavg 62¢	$811.43	$739.87	-$71.57	49% 482-498 (980)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 62¢	$494.83	$498.83	+$3.99
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 49.3¢	$316.6	$241.04	-$75.56
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Patriotsavg 53.5¢	$622.71	$578.94	-$43.76	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
38 38791873984189CTR	Patriotsavg 79.8¢	$804.63	$489.41	-$302.22	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
tradecraft	Lionsavg 48¢	$239.83	$312.28	+$72.45	34% 465-896 (1361)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Patriotsavg 48.3¢	$246.3	$181.03	-$65.27	43% 244-324 (568)
NO NotJump	Lionsavg 62.8¢	$130.44	$84.2	-$21.74	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
LI LightParadox<$100	Lionsavg 42¢	$50.82	$78.05	+$27.23	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
PA Pan9X	Lionsavg 65.4¢	$116.66	$27.03	-$9.42	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 50¢	$26.46	$16.67	-$9.79	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 49¢	$21.56	$9.46	-$12.1	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 58¢	$2.76	$3.9	+$1.14	39% 1558-2440 (3998)

justaluckydude

Lions

Invested

$1,875.03

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

50%

657-657 (1314)

Onomatopoeia777CTR

Patriots

Invested

$3,150

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$150

Record

24%

13-41 (54)

RN1ARB<$100

Patriots

Invested

$3,274.61

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$471.94

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

Both legs:

Lions$1,557.6462.7¢+$8.49

Patriots$1,716.9751.4¢-$480.43

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Lions

Invested

$1,464.52

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$852.09

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Lions

Invested

$1,020

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$7.5

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

primmCTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,503.61

Value

$917.3

PnL

-$586.31

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Patriots

Invested

$1,112.44

Value

$804.17

PnL

-$308.27

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

Both legs:

Patriots$850.8952.9¢-$328.53

Lions$261.5562.6¢+$20.26

Anon455ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$811.43

Value

$739.87

PnL

-$71.57

Record

49%

482-498 (980)

Both legs:

Lions$494.8362¢+$3.99

Patriots$316.649.3¢-$75.56

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Patriots

Invested

$622.71

Value

$578.94

PnL

-$43.76

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

38791873984189CTR

Patriots

Invested

$804.63

Value

$489.41

PnL

-$302.22

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

tradecraft

Lions

Invested

$239.83

Value

$312.28

PnL

+$72.45

Record

34%

465-896 (1361)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Patriots

Invested

$246.3

Value

$181.03

PnL

-$65.27

Record

43%

244-324 (568)

NotJump

Lions

Invested

$130.44

Value

$84.2

PnL

-$21.74

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

LightParadox<$100

Lions

Invested

$50.82

Value

$78.05

PnL

+$27.23

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

Pan9X

Lions

Invested

$116.66

Value

$27.03

PnL

-$9.42

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

VenusianCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$26.46

Value

$16.67

PnL

-$9.79

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

cm2897CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$21.56

Value

$9.46

PnL

-$12.1

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$2.76

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$1.14

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 81%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.