Spread: Packers (-6.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (70%) · Vikings at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

Packers<1¢Vikings>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 70%

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 99.7¢

+54% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Packers0%

Vikings100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings7 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares11,013

Combined PnL+$3.8K

Packers3 traders

Total Value$64.63

Total Shares5,876

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Vikings — 70%Packers — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrVikings 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Vikings 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Vikingsavg 64.6¢	$6.1K	$9.4K	+$3.3K	69% 1741-780 (2521)
38 38791873984189	Vikingsavg 63.2¢	$546.92	$838.48	+$308.54	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
AN Anon455	Vikingsavg 64¢	$330.24	$512.39	+$182.15	49% 497-511 (1008)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Vikingsavg 60¢	$55.7	$92.18	+$36.48	35% 143-263 (406)
nigiri99CTR	Packersavg 35¢	$2.0K	$61.28	$-1.9K	50% 760-746 (1506)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Vikingsavg 81.2¢	$40.6	$49.65	+$9.05	50% 663-662 (1325)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Vikingsavg 98¢	$49	$49.65	+$0.65	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
PA Pan9X<$100	Vikingsavg 83¢	$52.32	$21.85	+$13	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
PU purplegattoCTR	Packersavg 36¢	$109.42	$3.34	-$106.08	68% 2683-1267 (3950)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Packersavg 1.1¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0	55% 1999-1665 (3664)

SunlineTicker

Vikings

Invested

$6,101.51

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

69%

1741-780 (2521)

38791873984189

Vikings

Invested

$546.92

Value

$838.48

PnL

+$308.54

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Anon455

Vikings

Invested

$330.24

Value

$512.39

PnL

+$182.15

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

Oddstorm<$100

Vikings

Invested

$55.7

Value

$92.18

PnL

+$36.48

Record

35%

143-263 (406)

nigiri99CTR

Packers

Invested

$1,952.12

Value

$61.28

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

justaluckydude<$100

Vikings

Invested

$40.6

Value

$49.65

PnL

+$9.05

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

6512395314597884<$100

Vikings

Invested

$49

Value

$49.65

PnL

+$0.65

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Pan9X<$100

Vikings

Invested

$52.32

Value

$21.85

PnL

+$13

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

purplegattoCTR

Packers

Invested

$109.42

Value

$3.34

PnL

-$106.08

Record

68%

2683-1267 (3950)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrVikings 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Vikings 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.