Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Packers, while the market favors Vikings (84%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Vikings (-7.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (73%) · Packers at 17¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Vikings84¢Packers16¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 73%

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 16.5¢

-73% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidPackers at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 84%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings84%

Packers17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings3 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares8,994

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Packers8 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,217

Combined PnL-$846.03

Vikings — 27%Packers — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPackers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Vikingsavg 39.9¢	$3.6K	$5.5K	+$1.9K	59% 1183-828 (2011)
RN1CTR	Packersavg 55¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$0.92	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
TA takeormakeCTR	Packersavg 66¢	$2.0K	$1.2K	-$844.05	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
AN Anon455CTR	Packersavg 55.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$19.32	49% 486-502 (988)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Packersavg 60¢	$491.97	$511.75	+$19.78	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Packersavg 64.8¢	$351.19	$368.27	+$17.08	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Packersavg 61.5¢	$82.92	$73.63	-$6.36	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
MA MadridTime<$100	Vikingsavg 44¢	$26.46	$41.19	+$14.73	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Packersavg 56¢	$56	$34.44	-$13.19	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Packersavg 62.8¢	$11.6	$12.56	+$0.96	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
LI Limousin<$100	Vikingsavg 44¢	$6.99	$10.88	+$3.89	38% 1353-2203 (3556)

primm

Vikings

Invested

$3,556.16

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

RN1CTR

Packers

Invested

$1,370.43

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$0.92

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

takeormakeCTR

Packers

Invested

$2,029.63

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$844.05

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

Anon455CTR

Packers

Invested

$1,156.86

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$19.32

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

6512395314597884CTR

Packers

Invested

$491.97

Value

$511.75

PnL

+$19.78

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Packers

Invested

$351.19

Value

$368.27

PnL

+$17.08

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$82.92

Value

$73.63

PnL

-$6.36

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

MadridTime<$100

Vikings

Invested

$26.46

Value

$41.19

PnL

+$14.73

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$56

Value

$34.44

PnL

-$13.19

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$11.6

Value

$12.56

PnL

+$0.96

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Limousin<$100

Vikings

Invested

$6.99

Value

$10.88

PnL

+$3.89

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

Research grade

AvoidPackers at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 84%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPackers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.2%

16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$448.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

548.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.