Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Packers, while the market favors Vikings (83%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Vikings (-6.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (67%) · Packers at 17¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 15

Vikings83¢Packers17¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 67%

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

$-10.8K

Smart Money Entry

42.3¢ → 17¢

-60% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidPackers at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 83%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Vikings83%

Packers17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings4 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,615

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Packers8 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares48,127

Combined PnL$-12.4K

Vikings — 33%Packers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVikings 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Vikingsavg 41.7¢	$2.3K	$3.8K	+$1.5K	59% 1193-836 (2029)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Packersavg 42.9¢	$8.2K	$3.2K	$-5.0K	49% 2881-2944 (5825)
RN1CTR	Packersavg 42.4¢	$6.6K	$2.6K	$-4.1K	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
AN Anon455CTR	Packersavg 41.8¢	$3.4K	$1.4K	$-2.0K	49% 497-511 (1008)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Packersavg 47.2¢	$1.1K	$375.61	-$684.56	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Packersavg 32.4¢	$519.8	$264.47	-$255.33	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
38 38791873984189CTR	Packersavg 36.9¢	$445.77	$199.49	-$246.28	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Vikingsavg 38¢	$26.22	$48.3	+$22.08	50% 663-662 (1325)
VE Venusian<$100	Vikingsavg 42¢	$26.47	$44.12	+$17.65	38% 1404-2275 (3679)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Packersavg 48.1¢	$95.15	$32.67	-$62.48	50% 2214-2221 (4435)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Packersavg 45.1¢	$47.43	$18.75	-$27.68	50% 1182-1198 (2380)
TA takeormake<$100	Vikingsavg 57¢	$2.85	$4.18	+$1.32	57% 3683-2777 (6460)

primm

Vikings

Invested

$2,286.66

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Packers

Invested

$8,196.87

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

49%

2881-2944 (5825)

RN1CTR

Packers

Invested

$6,640.23

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

Anon455CTR

Packers

Invested

$3,370.9

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

6512395314597884CTR

Packers

Invested

$1,060.17

Value

$375.61

PnL

-$684.56

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Packers

Invested

$519.8

Value

$264.47

PnL

-$255.33

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

38791873984189CTR

Packers

Invested

$445.77

Value

$199.49

PnL

-$246.28

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

justaluckydude<$100

Vikings

Invested

$26.22

Value

$48.3

PnL

+$22.08

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

Venusian<$100

Vikings

Invested

$26.47

Value

$44.12

PnL

+$17.65

Record

38%

1404-2275 (3679)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$95.15

Value

$32.67

PnL

-$62.48

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$47.43

Value

$18.75

PnL

-$27.68

Record

50%

1182-1198 (2380)

takeormake<$100

Vikings

Invested

$2.85

Value

$4.18

PnL

+$1.32

Record

57%

3683-2777 (6460)

Research grade

AvoidPackers at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 83%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVikings 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.7%

17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$433.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

533.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.