Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Packers, while the market favors Vikings (55%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Vikings (-5.5)

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (83%) · Packers at 46¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 15

Vikings55¢Packers45¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 83%

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

58.5¢ → 45.5¢

-22% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 55%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings55%

Packers46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings2 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares12,912

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Packers10 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares14,232

Combined PnL+$378.81

Vikings — 17%Packers — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPackers 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Vikingsavg 42.9¢	$5.5K	$7.2K	+$1.6K	59% 1183-828 (2011)
RN1CTR	Packersavg 57¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$252.4	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
TA takeormakeCTR	Packersavg 55¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$254.75	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Packersavg 53.1¢	$849.93	$993.19	+$143.26	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Packersavg 66¢	$1.1K	$991.38	-$63.96	51% 572-546 (1118)
AN Anon455CTR	Packersavg 73.9¢	$855.58	$619.06	-$236.52	49% 486-502 (988)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Packersavg 59.4¢	$571.06	$595.94	+$24.88	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Packersavg 53.8¢	$56.81	$66.24	+$9.43	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Packersavg 54.8¢	$95.52	$38.53	-$4.24	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Packersavg 53.3¢	$24.85	$28.9	+$4.05	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Packersavg 55¢	$27.5	$22.25	-$5.25	46% 653-760 (1413)
38 38791873984189<$100	Vikingsavg 24¢	$4.64	$7.15	+$2.51	48% 3997-4384 (8381)

primm

Vikings

Invested

$5,524.85

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

RN1CTR

Packers

Invested

$2,865.16

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$252.4

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

takeormakeCTR

Packers

Invested

$2,001.58

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$254.75

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Packers

Invested

$849.93

Value

$993.19

PnL

+$143.26

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Packers

Invested

$1,055.34

Value

$991.38

PnL

-$63.96

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

Anon455CTR

Packers

Invested

$855.58

Value

$619.06

PnL

-$236.52

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

6512395314597884CTR

Packers

Invested

$571.06

Value

$595.94

PnL

+$24.88

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$56.81

Value

$66.24

PnL

+$9.43

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$95.52

Value

$38.53

PnL

-$4.24

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$24.85

Value

$28.9

PnL

+$4.05

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$27.5

Value

$22.25

PnL

-$5.25

Record

46%

653-760 (1413)

38791873984189<$100

Vikings

Invested

$4.64

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$2.51

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 55%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPackers 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.