Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Packers, while the market favors Vikings (57%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Vikings (-4.5)

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (91%) · Packers at 43¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 15

Vikings57¢Packers43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 91%

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 42.5¢

-23% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 57%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings57%

Packers43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings1 trader

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares12,207

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Packers10 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares12,416

Combined PnL+$469.73

Vikings — 9%Packers — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPackers 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Vikingsavg 44.7¢	$5.5K	$6.9K	+$1.4K	59% 1183-828 (2011)
RN1CTR	Packersavg 58.5¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$74.16	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
TA takeormakeCTR	Packersavg 53¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$269.74	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Packersavg 53.8¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$114.78	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Packersavg 57¢	$589.37	$619.86	+$30.49	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Packersavg 43¢	$219.87	$222.54	+$2.67	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Packersavg 53.9¢	$57.12	$45.72	-$11.4	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Packersavg 60.7¢	$36.18	$30.68	-$5.49	49% 486-502 (988)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Packersavg 61.7¢	$14.08	$13.71	-$0.38	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Packersavg 64¢	$16	$10.63	-$5.38	51% 572-546 (1118)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Packersavg 51¢	$3.01	$3.54	+$0.53	48% 3997-4384 (8381)

primm

Vikings

Invested

$5,456.37

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

RN1CTR

Packers

Invested

$2,892.24

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$74.16

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

takeormakeCTR

Packers

Invested

$2,042.34

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$269.74

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Packers

Invested

$1,000.16

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$114.78

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

6512395314597884CTR

Packers

Invested

$589.37

Value

$619.86

PnL

+$30.49

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Packers

Invested

$219.87

Value

$222.54

PnL

+$2.67

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$57.12

Value

$45.72

PnL

-$11.4

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Anon455CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$36.18

Value

$30.68

PnL

-$5.49

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$14.08

Value

$13.71

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$16

Value

$10.63

PnL

-$5.38

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$3.01

Value

$3.54

PnL

+$0.53

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 57%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPackers 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.