Spread: Vikings (-14.5)

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (9%) · Packers at 94¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Vikings6¢Packers94¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 9%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$46.17

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings6%

Packers94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers1 trader

Total Value$501.58

Total Shares531

Combined PnL-$1.03

Vikings10 traders

Total Value$678.11

Total Shares10,652

Combined PnL+$47.2

Packers — 9%Vikings — 91%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Packersavg 94.6¢	$502.62	$501.58	-$1.03	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
38 38791873984189CTR	Vikingsavg 5.9¢	$495.79	$440.86	+$39.58	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Vikingsavg 5.8¢	$69.68	$71.16	+$1.48	50% 747-737 (1484)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 6.2¢	$66.77	$68.99	+$2.23	— 3-13 (16)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 5.4¢	$32.13	$35.4	+$3.27	18% 63-281 (344)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Vikingsavg 6.3¢	$25.33	$24.74	-$0.59	36% 201-360 (561)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 5.9¢	$21.23	$14.27	+$1.04	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Vikingsavg 6.8¢	$14.36	$13.97	-$0.39	44% 337-422 (759)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 6.1¢	$3.76	$4.13	+$0.37	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Vikingsavg 5.4¢	$2.64	$2.91	+$0.27	51% 202-191 (393)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 6.9¢	$1.73	$1.68	-$0.05	38% 1354-2217 (3571)

xtxpleasecallme

Packers

Invested

$502.62

Value

$501.58

PnL

-$1.03

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

38791873984189CTR

Vikings

Invested

$495.79

Value

$440.86

PnL

+$39.58

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$69.68

Value

$71.16

PnL

+$1.48

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$66.77

Value

$68.99

PnL

+$2.23

Record

—

3-13 (16)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$32.13

Value

$35.4

PnL

+$3.27

Record

18%

63-281 (344)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$25.33

Value

$24.74

PnL

-$0.59

Record

36%

201-360 (561)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$21.23

Value

$14.27

PnL

+$1.04

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$14.36

Value

$13.97

PnL

-$0.39

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$3.76

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.37

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$0.27

Record

51%

202-191 (393)

VenusianCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.0%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.