Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Packers, while the market favors Vikings (57%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Vikings (-13.5)

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (77%) · Packers at 43¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 15

Vikings57¢Packers43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 77%

Total Value

$17.1K

Combined PnL

$872.51

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 42.5¢

-21% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 57%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings57%

Packers43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings3 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares15,195

Combined PnL+$454.06

Packers10 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares16,899

Combined PnL+$418.45

Vikings — 23%Packers — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPackers 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Vikingsavg 47¢	$7.1K	$7.5K	+$451.86	59% 1193-836 (2029)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Packersavg 47.6¢	$3.4K	$4.0K	+$595.74	49% 2881-2944 (5825)
RN1CTR	Packersavg 60.4¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$212.34	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
AN Anon455CTR	Packersavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$79.08	49% 497-511 (1008)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Packersavg 52.1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$75.17	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
38 38791873984189CTR	Packersavg 73.1¢	$537.39	$411.75	-$125.64	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Packersavg 52.1¢	$59.68	$64.17	+$4.5	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Packersavg 54.5¢	$60.1	$56	+$0.79	50% 1182-1198 (2380)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Packersavg 56.7¢	$48.79	$48.16	-$0.63	50% 2214-2221 (4435)
MA MadridTime<$100	Vikingsavg 48¢	$26.46	$27.56	+$1.1	38% 1398-2248 (3646)
VE Venusian<$100	Vikingsavg 48¢	$26.46	$27.56	+$1.1	38% 1404-2275 (3679)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Packersavg 44¢	$6.6	$8.4	+$1.8	50% 663-662 (1325)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Packersavg 57¢	$1.33	$1.3	-$0.02	39% 1625-2578 (4203)

primm

Vikings

Invested

$7,090.34

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$451.86

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Packers

Invested

$3,371.62

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$595.74

Record

49%

2881-2944 (5825)

RN1CTR

Packers

Invested

$2,914.19

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$212.34

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

Anon455CTR

Packers

Invested

$1,054.53

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$79.08

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

6512395314597884CTR

Packers

Invested

$1,006.1

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$75.17

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

38791873984189CTR

Packers

Invested

$537.39

Value

$411.75

PnL

-$125.64

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$59.68

Value

$64.17

PnL

+$4.5

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$60.1

Value

$56

PnL

+$0.79

Record

50%

1182-1198 (2380)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$48.79

Value

$48.16

PnL

-$0.63

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

MadridTime<$100

Vikings

Invested

$26.46

Value

$27.56

PnL

+$1.1

Record

38%

1398-2248 (3646)

Venusian<$100

Vikings

Invested

$26.46

Value

$27.56

PnL

+$1.1

Record

38%

1404-2275 (3679)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$6.6

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$1.8

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.02

Record

39%

1625-2578 (4203)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 57%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPackers 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.