Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (72%). 3 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 48.5

3 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (19%) · Under at 28¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Over72¢Under28¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 19%

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$969.01

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 28.5¢

-54% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 16 top traders (19%)Underdog side (market favors Over 72%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over72%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over13 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares8,158

Combined PnL+$4.3K

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares7,289

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Over — 81%Under — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 90% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 44¢	$1.1K	$2.4K	+$1.2K	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
AN Anon455	Overavg 40¢	$804.72	$1.8K	+$1.0K	49% 497-511 (1008)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 57.9¢	$3.4K	$1.2K	$-2.2K	59% 1193-836 (2029)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 19.1¢	$225.94	$1.1K	+$862.13	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 19¢	$137.57	$665.84	+$528.27	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 48.5¢	$345.44	$565.8	+$220.36	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 44¢	$249.56	$468.61	+$219.05	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
VE Venusian	Overavg 19¢	$31.87	$138.52	+$106.65	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 81¢	$1.5K	$108.73	$-1.1K	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Overavg 20¢	$12.11	$55.69	+$43.58	35% 143-263 (406)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 43.4¢	$25.34	$53.78	+$28.44	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 37.8¢	$19.73	$48	+$28.26	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 77¢	$35.59	$37.9	+$2.31	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 89¢	$17.8	$18.4	+$0.6	50% 663-662 (1325)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 47¢	$6.24	$10.55	+$4.31	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 80.7¢	$86.26	$7.48	-$78.78	50% 2215-2229 (4444)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,136.34

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$804.72

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$3,369.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$225.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$862.13

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$137.57

Value

$665.84

PnL

+$528.27

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$345.44

Value

$565.8

PnL

+$220.36

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$249.56

Value

$468.61

PnL

+$219.05

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$31.87

Value

$138.52

PnL

+$106.65

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$1,453.42

Value

$108.73

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Oddstorm<$100

Over

Invested

$12.11

Value

$55.69

PnL

+$43.58

Record

35%

143-263 (406)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$25.34

Value

$53.78

PnL

+$28.44

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$19.73

Value

$48

PnL

+$28.26

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$35.59

Value

$37.9

PnL

+$2.31

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$17.8

Value

$18.4

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$6.24

Value

$10.55

PnL

+$4.31

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$86.26

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$78.78

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 16 top traders (19%)Underdog side (market favors Over 72%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 90% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.