Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 36.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 47¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 15

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$32.7K

Combined PnL

$508.11

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 47¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$17.4K

Total Shares36,594

Combined PnL+$344.1

Over6 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares27,922

Combined PnL+$164.01

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$16.4K	$16.8K	+$344.1	48% 719-766 (1485)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53¢	$6.9K	$7.0K	+$129.68	56% 3918-3096 (7014)
HI hi774c	Overavg 53¢	$5.5K	$5.6K	+$103.69	26% 247-689 (936)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 54.7¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$73.43	48% 3920-4262 (8182)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 47¢	$283.48	$283.48	-$0	47% 1165-1328 (2493)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Overavg 53¢	$189.74	$193.32	+$3.58	48% 468-503 (971)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$117.5	$117.5	+$0	59% 3945-2726 (6671)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$117.5	$117.5	+$0	42% 545-745 (1290)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$91.18	$91.18	-$0	52% 418-382 (800)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 54¢	$29.74	$7.38	+$0.46	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 53¢	$530.49	$1.12	+$0.03	53% 1840-1607 (3447)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$16,422.05

Value

$16.8K

PnL

+$344.1

Record

48%

719-766 (1485)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$6,873

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$129.68

Record

56%

3918-3096 (7014)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$5,495.77

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$103.69

Record

26%

247-689 (936)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$2,667.1

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$73.43

Record

48%

3920-4262 (8182)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$283.48

Value

$283.48

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

1165-1328 (2493)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Over

Invested

$189.74

Value

$193.32

PnL

+$3.58

Record

48%

468-503 (971)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$117.5

Value

$117.5

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3945-2726 (6671)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$117.5

Value

$117.5

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

545-745 (1290)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.18

Value

$91.18

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

418-382 (800)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$29.74

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$0.46

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$530.49

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

1840-1607 (3447)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.