Spread: Colts (-9.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (56%) · Dolphins at 97¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Colts3¢Dolphins97¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 56%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$183.73

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 96.7¢

+64% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Colts3%

Dolphins97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts4 traders

Total Value$752.1

Total Shares1,291

Combined PnL+$229.24

Dolphins5 traders

Total Value$718.32

Total Shares1,238

Combined PnL-$45.5

Colts — 44%Dolphins — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrColts 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Dolphins 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Coltsavg 41¢	$283.39	$429.04	+$145.65	59% 1193-836 (2029)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Coltsavg 35¢	$175	$310	+$135	51% 579-567 (1146)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Dolphinsavg 65¢	$325	$290	-$35	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
65 6512395314597884	Dolphinsavg 55.5¢	$222	$232	+$10	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Dolphinsavg 50¢	$650	$116	-$16	63% 147-86 (233)
PA Pan9X<$100	Dolphinsavg 59.4¢	$54.61	$53.36	-$1.25	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
38 38791873984189<$100	Dolphinsavg 65¢	$30.22	$26.96	-$3.25	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Coltsavg 63¢	$35	$9.02	-$25.98	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Coltsavg 62¢	$29.47	$4.04	-$25.43	49% 497-511 (1008)

primmCTR

Colts

Invested

$283.39

Value

$429.04

PnL

+$145.65

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Colts

Invested

$175

Value

$310

PnL

+$135

Record

51%

579-567 (1146)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Dolphins

Invested

$325

Value

$290

PnL

-$35

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

6512395314597884

Dolphins

Invested

$222

Value

$232

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Dolphins

Invested

$650

Value

$116

PnL

-$16

Record

63%

147-86 (233)

Pan9X<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$54.61

Value

$53.36

PnL

-$1.25

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

38791873984189<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$30.22

Value

$26.96

PnL

-$3.25

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$35

Value

$9.02

PnL

-$25.98

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Anon455CTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$29.47

Value

$4.04

PnL

-$25.43

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrColts 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Dolphins 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.