Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Dolphins, while the market favors Colts (75%). 8 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Colts (-7.5)

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (57%) · Dolphins at 25¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Colts75¢Dolphins25¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 57%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$5.49

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 25¢

-60% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidDolphins at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Colts 75%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Colts75%

Dolphins25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,627

Combined PnL+$835.84

Dolphins8 traders

Total Value$663.49

Total Shares2,375

Combined PnL-$830.36

Colts — 43%Dolphins — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrColts 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Coltsavg 37¢	$554.63	$1.1K	+$532.14	51% 579-567 (1146)
PR primm	Coltsavg 46.5¢	$443.58	$692.13	+$248.55	59% 1193-836 (2029)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Dolphinsavg 63¢	$944.37	$412.23	-$532.15	52% 2703-2512 (5215)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Dolphinsavg 56.9¢	$231.64	$111.94	-$119.7	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
38 38791873984189<$100	Coltsavg 35¢	$38.31	$73.24	+$34.93	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Dolphinsavg 66.8¢	$133.14	$54.84	-$78.3	39% 1625-2578 (4203)
NO NotJump<$100	Coltsavg 35¢	$26.31	$44.01	+$17.71	50% 1182-1198 (2380)
RN1CTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 74¢	$98.95	$36.77	-$62.18	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 61.8¢	$40.53	$20.31	-$20.21	39% 237-370 (607)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 60.3¢	$32.78	$18.35	-$14.43	50% 2214-2221 (4435)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Coltsavg 69¢	$4.6	$4.83	+$0.23	50% 663-662 (1325)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 65¢	$4.94	$4.81	-$0.13	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
AN Anon455<$100	Coltsavg 36¢	$2.25	$4.53	+$2.28	49% 497-511 (1008)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 48.6¢	$7.5	$4.24	-$3.26	49% 2881-2944 (5825)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Colts

Invested

$554.63

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$532.14

Record

51%

579-567 (1146)

primm

Colts

Invested

$443.58

Value

$692.13

PnL

+$248.55

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$944.37

Value

$412.23

PnL

-$532.15

Record

52%

2703-2512 (5215)

6512395314597884CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$231.64

Value

$111.94

PnL

-$119.7

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

38791873984189<$100

Colts

Invested

$38.31

Value

$73.24

PnL

+$34.93

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

topdogbigboiCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$133.14

Value

$54.84

PnL

-$78.3

Record

39%

1625-2578 (4203)

NotJump<$100

Colts

Invested

$26.31

Value

$44.01

PnL

+$17.71

Record

50%

1182-1198 (2380)

RN1CTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$98.95

Value

$36.77

PnL

-$62.18

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$40.53

Value

$20.31

PnL

-$20.21

Record

39%

237-370 (607)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$32.78

Value

$18.35

PnL

-$14.43

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

justaluckydude<$100

Colts

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.83

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$0.13

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

Anon455<$100

Colts

Invested

$2.25

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$2.28

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$7.5

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$3.26

Record

49%

2881-2944 (5825)

Research grade

AvoidDolphins at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Colts 75%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrColts 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.