Spread: Colts (-14.5)

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (64%) · Dolphins at 57¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Colts43¢Dolphins57¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 64%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$179.19

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 57.5¢

-19% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Colts43%

Dolphins57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dolphins9 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,739

Combined PnL-$387.48

Colts5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,677

Combined PnL+$566.67

Dolphins — 64%Colts — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrColts 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Dolphinsavg 68¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$167.02	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
PR primmCTR	Coltsavg 32.3¢	$787.1	$1.1K	+$297.48	59% 1193-836 (2029)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Coltsavg 21¢	$220.4	$446.04	+$225.64	51% 579-567 (1146)
AN Anon455	Dolphinsavg 79.1¢	$474.61	$365.91	-$108.7	49% 497-511 (1008)
38 38791873984189	Dolphinsavg 77.3¢	$337.09	$265.85	-$71.24	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
65 6512395314597884	Dolphinsavg 79¢	$158	$122	-$36	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Coltsavg 20¢	$25.41	$62.25	+$36.84	38% 1406-2304 (3710)
NO NotJump<$100	Dolphinsavg 54¢	$30.13	$30.21	+$0.08	50% 1182-1198 (2380)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Coltsavg 37.8¢	$18.25	$20.54	+$2.29	50% 663-662 (1325)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Dolphinsavg 61¢	$20.33	$20.33	+$0	39% 1625-2578 (4203)
PA Pan9X<$100	Dolphinsavg 79¢	$17.38	$13.42	-$3.96	50% 2214-2221 (4435)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Coltsavg 20¢	$3.04	$7.45	+$4.41	38% 1398-2248 (3646)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Dolphinsavg 69¢	$3.84	$3.4	-$0.45	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
LR lryyy<$100	Dolphinsavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.05	-$0.2	46% 1011-1210 (2221)

RN1

Dolphins

Invested

$1,622.48

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$167.02

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

primmCTR

Colts

Invested

$787.1

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$297.48

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Colts

Invested

$220.4

Value

$446.04

PnL

+$225.64

Record

51%

579-567 (1146)

Anon455

Dolphins

Invested

$474.61

Value

$365.91

PnL

-$108.7

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

38791873984189

Dolphins

Invested

$337.09

Value

$265.85

PnL

-$71.24

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

6512395314597884

Dolphins

Invested

$158

Value

$122

PnL

-$36

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$25.41

Value

$62.25

PnL

+$36.84

Record

38%

1406-2304 (3710)

NotJump<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$30.13

Value

$30.21

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

1182-1198 (2380)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$18.25

Value

$20.54

PnL

+$2.29

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

topdogbigboi<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$20.33

Value

$20.33

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1625-2578 (4203)

Pan9X<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$17.38

Value

$13.42

PnL

-$3.96

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$3.04

Value

$7.45

PnL

+$4.41

Record

38%

1398-2248 (3646)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$3.84

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.45

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

lryyy<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$0.2

Record

46%

1011-1210 (2221)

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrColts 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.