Spread: Colts (-13.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (60%) · Colts at 51¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Colts51¢Dolphins49¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$101

Smart Money Entry

41¢ → 50.5¢

+23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

6 of 10 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Colts51%

Dolphins50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,791

Combined PnL+$228.46

Dolphins4 traders

Total Value$498

Total Shares855

Combined PnL-$127.46

Colts — 60%Dolphins — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrColts 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedColts 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Coltsavg 55.6¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$608.26	49% 497-511 (1008)
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 76¢	$667.66	$632.52	-$35.14
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 55.6¢	$1.2K	$581.48	-$573.12
PR primm	Coltsavg 54.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$103.25	59% 1193-836 (2029)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Coltsavg 24¢	$315.88	$651.5	+$335.62	51% 579-567 (1146)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Dolphinsavg 72¢	$394.27	$276.54	-$117.73	18% 63-282 (345)
38 38791873984189CTR	Dolphinsavg 76¢	$228	$216	-$12	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Dolphinsavg 75.7¢	$217.79	$209.93	-$7.86	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 75.7¢	$161.79	$153.93	-$7.86
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 28¢	$56	$56	-$0
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Dolphinsavg 64¢	$101.49	$92.99	-$8.5	50% 1182-1198 (2380)
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 64¢	$64	$72	+$8
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 50¢	$37.5	$21	-$16.5
RN1<$100	Coltsavg 28¢	$92.01	$92.01	+$0	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
PA Pan9X<$100	Coltsavg 28¢	$24.92	$16.16	-$0.84	50% 2214-2221 (4435)
MA MadridTime<$100	Coltsavg 36¢	$13.83	$10.76	-$3.07	38% 1398-2248 (3646)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Coltsavg 28¢	$7.28	$7.28	-$0	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 42¢	$2.52	$4.32	+$1.8	50% 663-662 (1325)
US User7429CTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 42¢	$0.66	$1.14	+$0.47	43% 435-573 (1008)

Anon455ARB<$100

Colts

Invested

$1,822.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$608.26

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

Both legs:

Dolphins$667.6676¢-$35.14

Colts$1,154.655.6¢-$573.12

primm

Colts

Invested

$1,118

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$103.25

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Colts

Invested

$315.88

Value

$651.5

PnL

+$335.62

Record

51%

579-567 (1146)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$394.27

Value

$276.54

PnL

-$117.73

Record

18%

63-282 (345)

38791873984189CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$228

Value

$216

PnL

-$12

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$217.79

Value

$209.93

PnL

-$7.86

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Both legs:

Dolphins$161.7975.7¢-$7.86

Colts$5628¢-$0

NotJumpARB<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$101.49

Value

$92.99

PnL

-$8.5

Record

50%

1182-1198 (2380)

Both legs:

Invested

$92.01

Value

$92.01

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

Pan9X<$100

Colts

Invested

$24.92

Value

$16.16

PnL

-$0.84

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

MadridTime<$100

Colts

Invested

$13.83

Value

$10.76

PnL

-$3.07

Record

38%

1398-2248 (3646)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Colts

Invested

$7.28

Value

$7.28

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$2.52

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$1.8

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

User7429CTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$0.66

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.47

Record

43%

435-573 (1008)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Colts

6 of 10 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrColts 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedColts 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.