Spread: Dolphins (-3.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (58%) · Colts at 76¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Dolphins24¢Colts76¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 58%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$49.38

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 76¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Dolphins24%

Colts76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,464

Combined PnL+$271.76

Dolphins5 traders

Total Value$459.2

Total Shares2,692

Combined PnL-$222.38

Colts — 58%Dolphins — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrDolphins 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedColts 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Coltsavg 73¢	$867.97	$1.0K	+$154.57	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Coltsavg 75.5¢	$758.21	$863.48	+$105.28	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
NE neymar1CTR	Dolphinsavg 27¢	$474.7	$246.4	-$228.3	— 5-14 (19)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Dolphinsavg 22¢	$110.17	$112.68	+$2.5	51% 572-546 (1118)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 23¢	$68.15	$79.92	+$11.77	36% 140-253 (393)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Coltsavg 77¢	$79.31	$75.19	-$4.12	48% 490-523 (1013)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Coltsavg 77¢	$66.22	$73.96	+$7.74	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
NO NotJump<$100	Coltsavg 74¢	$37	$43	+$6	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
PA Pan9X<$100	Coltsavg 73¢	$15.33	$18.06	+$2.73	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 21¢	$26.25	$17.5	-$8.75	49% 486-502 (988)
0xheavy888<$100	Coltsavg 77¢	$8.47	$8.03	-$0.44	56% 679-534 (1213)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 23¢	$2.3	$2.7	+$0.4	50% 748-738 (1486)

RN1

Colts

Invested

$867.97

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$154.57

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Colts

Invested

$758.21

Value

$863.48

PnL

+$105.28

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

neymar1CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$474.7

Value

$246.4

PnL

-$228.3

Record

—

5-14 (19)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$110.17

Value

$112.68

PnL

+$2.5

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

OddstormCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$68.15

Value

$79.92

PnL

+$11.77

Record

36%

140-253 (393)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Colts

Invested

$79.31

Value

$75.19

PnL

-$4.12

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

6512395314597884<$100

Colts

Invested

$66.22

Value

$73.96

PnL

+$7.74

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

NotJump<$100

Colts

Invested

$37

Value

$43

PnL

+$6

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Pan9X<$100

Colts

Invested

$15.33

Value

$18.06

PnL

+$2.73

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Anon455CTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$26.25

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$8.75

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

0xheavy888<$100

Colts

Invested

$8.47

Value

$8.03

PnL

-$0.44

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

748-738 (1486)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrDolphins 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedColts 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.