Raiders vs. 49ers: O/U 54.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$152.49

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 99.7¢

+110% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,997

Combined PnL+$527.01

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,387

Combined PnL-$374.53

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 48.8¢	$969.88	$1.1K	+$172.14	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
CM cm2897CTR	Underavg 52¢	$935.48	$809.72	-$125.76	50% 2578-2627 (5205)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 47.1¢	$1.2K	$808.72	+$240.29	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 52.9¢	$1.2K	$382.86	-$240.87	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 47¢	$490	$330.75	+$100.45	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$285.03	$302.19	+$17.16	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$310.99	$183.77	+$19.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$75.44	$118.42	-$2.63
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 41¢	$196.25	$210.38	+$14.13	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 59¢	$186.83	$183.69	-$3.14	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$48.57	$43.81	-$4.76	58% 22573-16672 (39245)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$969.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$172.14

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

cm2897CTR

Under

Invested

$935.48

Value

$809.72

PnL

-$125.76

Record

50%

2578-2627 (5205)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$1,207.04

Value

$808.72

PnL

+$240.29

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$1,178.04

Value

$382.86

PnL

-$240.87

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$490

Value

$330.75

PnL

+$100.45

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$285.03

Value

$302.19

PnL

+$17.16

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

Both legs:

Under$310.9955¢+$19.79

Over$75.4443¢-$2.63

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$196.25

Value

$210.38

PnL

+$14.13

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$186.83

Value

$183.69

PnL

-$3.14

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48.57

Value

$43.81

PnL

-$4.76

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.