Spread: 49ers (-17.5)

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (62%) · 49ers at 95¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 8

49ers95¢Raiders5¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

49ers

Consensus Traders

49ers 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 95¢

+83% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers95%

Raiders5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

49ers8 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares9,605

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Raiders5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,859

Combined PnL-$664.25

49ers — 62%Raiders — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale49ers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctr49ers 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 100049ers 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	49ersavg 44.2¢	$3.1K	$4.3K	+$2.9K	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
AN Anon455	49ersavg 57.5¢	$2.3K	$3.1K	+$794.28	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Raidersavg 52.5¢	$1.4K	$889.72	-$492.33	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
38 38791873984189	49ersavg 36.8¢	$618.02	$526.11	+$115.64	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
FE ferrariChampions2026	49ersavg 58.9¢	$303.38	$467.52	+$164.14	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
TA takeormake	49ersavg 96¢	$524.84	$461.32	-$63.52	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Raidersavg 42.9¢	$195.27	$139.08	-$56.19	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 42.9¢	$170.12	$91.26	-$78.86
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 40.5¢	$25.15	$47.81	+$22.66
LI LightParadox	49ersavg 100¢	$164.06	$111.93	-$52.13	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
nigiri99<$100	49ersavg 25¢	$55	$93.5	+$38.5	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Raidersavg 21.9¢	$217	$89.32	-$127.68	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Raidersavg 41¢	$80.1	$70.96	-$9.14	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
PA Pan9XCTR	Raidersavg 59.1¢	$100.13	$47.94	-$34.37	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Raidersavg 74¢	$42.38	$41.65	-$0.73	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
JU justaluckydude<$100	49ersavg 31¢	$9.29	$3.95	+$1.07	53% 13686-12064 (25750)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

49ers

Invested

$3,074.36

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

Anon455

49ers

Invested

$2,308.38

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$794.28

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

6512395314597884CTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,382.04

Value

$889.72

PnL

-$492.33

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

38791873984189

49ers

Invested

$618.02

Value

$526.11

PnL

+$115.64

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

ferrariChampions2026

49ers

Invested

$303.38

Value

$467.52

PnL

+$164.14

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

takeormake

49ers

Invested

$524.84

Value

$461.32

PnL

-$63.52

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

LimousinARB<$100

Raiders

Invested

$195.27

Value

$139.08

PnL

-$56.19

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

Both legs:

Raiders$170.1242.9¢-$78.86

49ers$25.1540.5¢+$22.66

LightParadox

49ers

Invested

$164.06

Value

$111.93

PnL

-$52.13

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

nigiri99<$100

49ers

Invested

$55

Value

$93.5

PnL

+$38.5

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Raiders

Invested

$217

Value

$89.32

PnL

-$127.68

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$80.1

Value

$70.96

PnL

-$9.14

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

Pan9XCTR

Raiders

Invested

$100.13

Value

$47.94

PnL

-$34.37

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$42.38

Value

$41.65

PnL

-$0.73

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

justaluckydude<$100

49ers

Invested

$9.29

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$1.07

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale49ers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctr49ers 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 100049ers 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 49ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.