Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raiders, while the market favors 49ers (99%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: 49ers (-10.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (58%) · Raiders at 1.3¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 8

49ers99¢Raiders1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raiders

Consensus Traders

Raiders 58%

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

$-3.8K

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 1.3¢

-98% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaiders at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors 49ers 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers99%

Raiders1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raiders7 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares33,739

Combined PnL$-7.6K

49ers5 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,485

Combined PnL+$3.8K

Raiders — 58%49ers — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 100% · 3

Aligned

ctr49ers 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Raiders 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Raidersavg 56¢	$27.9K	$9.2K	$-6.4K	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	49ersavg 53.9¢	$3.3K	$5.7K	+$2.4K	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
38 38791873984189	49ersavg 47.1¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$1.1K	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
nigiri99CTR	Raidersavg 56¢	$2.8K	$1.6K	$-1.1K	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
AN Anon455	49ersavg 45¢	$798.12	$1.0K	+$206.27	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	49ersavg 63.7¢	$320.91	$491.36	+$170.45	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Raidersavg 25.6¢	$267.87	$235.58	-$32.3	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Raidersavg 46¢	$99.99	$33.5	-$12.5	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
PA Pan9XCTR	Raidersavg 36.3¢	$134	$31.37	+$8.44	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Raidersavg 55¢	$26.5	$27.75	+$1.25	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Raidersavg 46¢	$20.6	$19.15	-$1.45	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
JU justaluckydude<$100	49ersavg 88¢	$7.74	$7.07	-$0.67	53% 13686-12064 (25750)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Raiders

Invested

$27,912.14

Value

$9.2K

PnL

$-6.4K

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

49ers

Invested

$3,303.46

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

38791873984189

49ers

Invested

$1,304.11

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

nigiri99CTR

Raiders

Invested

$2,765.84

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

Anon455

49ers

Invested

$798.12

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$206.27

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

49ers

Invested

$320.91

Value

$491.36

PnL

+$170.45

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

6512395314597884CTR

Raiders

Invested

$267.87

Value

$235.58

PnL

-$32.3

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

LimousinCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$99.99

Value

$33.5

PnL

-$12.5

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

Pan9XCTR

Raiders

Invested

$134

Value

$31.37

PnL

+$8.44

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$26.5

Value

$27.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$20.6

Value

$19.15

PnL

-$1.45

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

justaluckydude<$100

49ers

Invested

$7.74

Value

$7.07

PnL

-$0.67

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

Research grade

AvoidRaiders at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors 49ers 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 100% · 3

Aligned

ctr49ers 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Raiders 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.4%

1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4045.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

4145.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.