Rams vs. Commanders: O/U 44.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 66¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 8

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$159.51

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 66¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares10,513

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Over4 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares9,924

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 62.5¢	$5.5K	$4.4K	$-1.1K	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 39¢	$2.1K	$2.9K	+$794.85	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
CM cm2897CTR	Overavg 33.8¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$576.22	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 60¢	$675	$685	+$10	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 62.3¢	$496.05	$397.91	-$98.15	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 40¢	$348.61	$328.19	-$20.42	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$24.7	$32.5	+$7.8	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 38¢	$8.19	$8.19	+$0	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Underavg 38¢	$1.93	$1.6	-$0.33	48% 8324-8883 (17207)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$5,506.5

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$2,066.61

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$794.85

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

cm2897CTR

Over

Invested

$1,203.84

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$576.22

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$675

Value

$685

PnL

+$10

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$496.05

Value

$397.91

PnL

-$98.15

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$348.61

Value

$328.19

PnL

-$20.42

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.7

Value

$32.5

PnL

+$7.8

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$8.19

Value

$8.19

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Oddstorm<$100

Under

Invested

$1.93

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.33

Record

48%

8324-8883 (17207)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.