Spread: Commanders (-3.5)

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (53%) · Rams at 88¢ · $54K held · ended Nov 8

Commanders12¢Rams88¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$54.1K

Combined PnL

$5.1K

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 88¢

+17% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralRams at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Commanders12%

Rams88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams8 traders

Total Value$36.6K

Total Shares53,887

Combined PnL+$854.54

Commanders7 traders

Total Value$17.4K

Total Shares54,168

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Rams — 53%Commanders — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRams 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrCommanders 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedRams 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rams 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Ramsavg 78¢	$18.1K	$18.2K	+$150.84	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Commandersavg 21.4¢	$3.6K	$10.5K	+$4.1K	50% 585-578 (1163)
VeryLucky888	Ramsavg 79¢	$9.9K	$9.8K	-$74.95	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
TA takeormakeCTR	Commandersavg 26.4¢	$5.3K	$5.9K	+$615.61	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
BI biying88888	Ramsavg 57¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$603.75	48% 233-252 (485)
RN1	Ramsavg 67¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$104.96	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Ramsavg 64.5¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$151.25	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ramsavg 66.8¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$133.61	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
AN Anon455CTR	Commandersavg 43¢	$606.09	$359.43	-$246.66	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
GC GC-P	Ramsavg 79¢	$330	$327.5	-$2.5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
NM NM-P	Ramsavg 79¢	$327.5	$325	-$2.5	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
betdgeCTR	Commandersavg 34¢	$346.46	$259.85	-$86.62	49% 1422-1474 (2896)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Ramsavg 67¢	$215.22	$217.09	+$1.87	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 67¢	$134	$151	+$17
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 30.1¢	$81.22	$66.09	-$15.13
38 38791873984189CTR	Commandersavg 43¢	$258	$153	-$105	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Commandersavg 32¢	$163.97	$128.01	-$35.96	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Commandersavg 40.7¢	$41.49	$12.41	-$10.56	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

HomeRunHazard

Rams

Invested

$18,091.01

Value

$18.2K

PnL

+$150.84

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Commanders

Invested

$3,605.61

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

50%

585-578 (1163)

VeryLucky888

Rams

Invested

$9,899.95

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$74.95

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

takeormakeCTR

Commanders

Invested

$5,334.24

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$615.61

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

biying88888

Rams

Invested

$1,966.5

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$603.75

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

RN1

Rams

Invested

$2,425.04

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$104.96

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Rams

Invested

$1,631.7

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$151.25

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Rams

Invested

$1,032.05

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$133.61

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Anon455CTR

Commanders

Invested

$606.09

Value

$359.43

PnL

-$246.66

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

GC-P

Rams

Invested

$330

Value

$327.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

NM-P

Rams

Invested

$327.5

Value

$325

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

betdgeCTR

Commanders

Invested

$346.46

Value

$259.85

PnL

-$86.62

Record

49%

1422-1474 (2896)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Rams

Invested

$215.22

Value

$217.09

PnL

+$1.87

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Rams$13467¢+$17

Commanders$81.2230.1¢-$15.13

38791873984189CTR

Commanders

Invested

$258

Value

$153

PnL

-$105

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Commanders

Invested

$163.97

Value

$128.01

PnL

-$35.96

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$41.49

Value

$12.41

PnL

-$10.56

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

NeutralRams at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRams 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrCommanders 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedRams 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rams 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.