Spread: Rams (-2.5)

3 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (17%) · Commanders at 52¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Rams49¢Commanders51¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 17%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

-$4.6

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

3 of 18 top traders (17%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rams49%

Commanders52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,253

Combined PnL+$27.62

Rams15 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares7,307

Combined PnL-$32.21

Commanders — 17%Rams — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Commandersavg 55.3¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$157.83	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
AN Anon455CTR	Ramsavg 44¢	$929.33	$1.0K	+$109.33	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
TA takeormake	Commandersavg 39.3¢	$780.88	$1.0K	+$241.68	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Ramsavg 43.9¢	$675.48	$746.16	+$70.68	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
BI big8betz	Commandersavg 56.8¢	$605.23	$548.99	-$56.24	50% 57-57 (114)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Ramsavg 46.8¢	$445.46	$461.17	+$15.71	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
nigiri99CTR	Ramsavg 58.1¢	$519.79	$366.54	-$153.25	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Ramsavg 44¢	$220	$242.5	+$22.5	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
NM NM-PCTR	Ramsavg 61¢	$500	$222.5	-$82.5	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
GC GC-PCTR	Ramsavg 61¢	$154.58	$152.86	-$1.72	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
CM cm2897CTR	Ramsavg 53¢	$155.29	$142.11	-$13.19	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
RN1CTR<$100	Ramsavg 44¢	$69.14	$64.43	-$4.71	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Ramsavg 41¢	$24.08	$28.48	+$4.4	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Ramsavg 55.5¢	$18.11	$19.2	+$1.08	55% 681-557 (1238)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	Ramsavg 58.5¢	$17.91	$17.57	-$0.34	53% 685-609 (1294)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Ramsavg 63¢	$11.64	$11.79	+$0.15	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Ramsavg 63¢	$7.05	$6.68	-$0.38	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Ramsavg 60¢	$1.1	$1.11	+$0.01	54% 19973-16852 (36825)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Commanders

Invested

$2,321.38

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$157.83

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Anon455CTR

Rams

Invested

$929.33

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$109.33

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

takeormake

Commanders

Invested

$780.88

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$241.68

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Rams

Invested

$675.48

Value

$746.16

PnL

+$70.68

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

big8betz

Commanders

Invested

$605.23

Value

$548.99

PnL

-$56.24

Record

50%

57-57 (114)

6512395314597884CTR

Rams

Invested

$445.46

Value

$461.17

PnL

+$15.71

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

nigiri99CTR

Rams

Invested

$519.79

Value

$366.54

PnL

-$153.25

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Rams

Invested

$220

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$22.5

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

NM-PCTR

Rams

Invested

$500

Value

$222.5

PnL

-$82.5

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

GC-PCTR

Rams

Invested

$154.58

Value

$152.86

PnL

-$1.72

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

cm2897CTR

Rams

Invested

$155.29

Value

$142.11

PnL

-$13.19

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

RN1CTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$69.14

Value

$64.43

PnL

-$4.71

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$24.08

Value

$28.48

PnL

+$4.4

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$18.11

Value

$19.2

PnL

+$1.08

Record

55%

681-557 (1238)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$17.91

Value

$17.57

PnL

-$0.34

Record

53%

685-609 (1294)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$11.64

Value

$11.79

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$7.05

Value

$6.68

PnL

-$0.38

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.11

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

3 of 18 top traders (17%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.