Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 98¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 97.5¢

+66% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares5,980

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,496

Combined PnL-$611.83

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CM cm2897	Underavg 57¢	$1.6K	$2.8K	+$1.2K	49% 1281-1325 (2606)
BI biying88888	Underavg 57¢	$1.3K	$2.2K	+$934.27	44% 268-345 (613)
RN1CTR	Overavg 43¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$736.78	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 63.7¢	$448.88	$497.31	+$48.43	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 86¢	$688.3	$203.76	-$83.01	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 63¢	$33.61	$34.95	+$1.33	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$21.5	$13	-$8.5	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 59¢	$5.9	$6.2	+$0.3	50% 714-704 (1418)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 14.1¢	$405.92	$1.91	+$168.53	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$26.43	$1.75	-$24.68	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$11.2	$0.81	-$10.39	38% 1433-2333 (3766)

cm2897

Under

Invested

$1,641.6

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

49%

1281-1325 (2606)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$1,313.28

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$934.27

Record

44%

268-345 (613)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,863.62

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$736.78

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$448.88

Value

$497.31

PnL

+$48.43

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$688.3

Value

$203.76

PnL

-$83.01

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$33.61

Value

$34.95

PnL

+$1.33

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.5

Value

$13

PnL

-$8.5

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$5.9

Value

$6.2

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$405.92

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$168.53

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.43

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$24.68

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.2

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$10.39

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.