Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 40.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 44¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$86.29

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 43.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares9,843

Combined PnL-$5.95

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,520

Combined PnL-$80.34

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA bands1CTR	Overavg 43¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$32.99	51% 360-345 (705)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 57¢	$2.4K	$1.7K	-$79.09	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
DV dv-pmCTR	Overavg 45¢	$876.15	$837.21	-$38.94	46% 45-53 (98)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 43¢	$558.39	$558.39	+$0	48% 720-766 (1486)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 57¢	$379.62	$376.29	-$3.33	48% 472-515 (987)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 55¢	$281.6	$291.84	+$10.24	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
NM NM-P	Underavg 57¢	$285	$282.5	-$2.5	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
GC GC-P	Underavg 57¢	$285	$282.5	-$2.5	42% 548-748 (1296)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 57¢	$236.78	$233.63	-$3.15	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 57¢	$1.71	$1.69	-$0.02	50% 747-737 (1484)

bands1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,837.04

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$32.99

Record

51%

360-345 (705)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$2,406.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$79.09

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

dv-pmCTR

Over

Invested

$876.15

Value

$837.21

PnL

-$38.94

Record

46%

45-53 (98)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$558.39

Value

$558.39

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$379.62

Value

$376.29

PnL

-$3.33

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$281.6

Value

$291.84

PnL

+$10.24

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$285

Value

$282.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$285

Value

$282.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$236.78

Value

$233.63

PnL

-$3.15

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.