Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 38.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 51¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$19.4K

Combined PnL

-$13.8

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares19,158

Combined PnL-$35.97

Under5 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares19,346

Combined PnL+$22.17

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 49.5¢	$6.1K	$6.1K	-$5.48	48% 720-766 (1486)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	-$44.2	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
GM gmpm2	Underavg 49¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$65.36	55% 361-299 (660)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$0.56	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$0	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$31.17	48% 469-508 (977)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$58.88	$58.88	-$0	17% 34-165 (199)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$47.04	$47.04	+$0	36% 201-360 (561)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 51¢	$22.44	$22.22	-$0.22	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 46¢	$14.21	$15.44	+$1.24	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$11.76	$11.88	+$0.12	52% 419-387 (806)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$6,124.35

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$5.48

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$4,508.74

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$44.2

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

gmpm2

Under

Invested

$3,202.6

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$65.36

Record

55%

361-299 (660)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$2,278.72

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$0.56

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$1,965

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$1,186.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$31.17

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$58.88

Value

$58.88

PnL

-$0

Record

17%

34-165 (199)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.04

Value

$47.04

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

201-360 (561)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$22.44

Value

$22.22

PnL

-$0.22

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$14.21

Value

$15.44

PnL

+$1.24

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.76

Value

$11.88

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

419-387 (806)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.