Spread: Rams (-5.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (55%) · Rams at 56¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Rams56¢Cardinals44¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

-$0.12

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 56.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralRams at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rams56%

Cardinals44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cardinals5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares10,803

Combined PnL+$109.3

Rams6 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares9,861

Combined PnL-$109.42

Cardinals — 45%Rams — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Cardinalsavg 42.4¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$112.76	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
JU justaluckydude	Ramsavg 57.2¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$36.26	50% 663-662 (1325)
PR primm	Ramsavg 58.1¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$60.09	59% 1193-836 (2029)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ramsavg 59¢	$295	$282.5	-$12.5	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Cardinalsavg 40¢	$122.25	$132.94	+$10.7	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Cardinalsavg 39¢	$123.29	$107.49	-$15.81	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Ramsavg 50¢	$105	$83.25	-$1.25	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 50¢	$52.5	$59.32	+$6.82
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 50¢	$27.5	$23.93	-$8.08
OD Oddstorm<$100	Ramsavg 67¢	$51.66	$50.89	-$0.77	35% 143-263 (406)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ramsavg 60¢	$31.6	$31.6	+$0	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 33¢	$49.9	$25.75	+$1.85	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Ramsavg 62¢	$3.08	$3.28	+$0.2	39% 237-370 (607)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 38¢	$1.89	$1.69	-$0.2	47% 676-773 (1449)

takeormakeCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$4,285.16

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$112.76

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

justaluckydude

Rams

Invested

$3,176.59

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$36.26

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

primm

Rams

Invested

$2,139.69

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$60.09

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Rams

Invested

$295

Value

$282.5

PnL

-$12.5

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

6512395314597884CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$122.25

Value

$132.94

PnL

+$10.7

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$123.29

Value

$107.49

PnL

-$15.81

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

NotJumpARB<$100

Rams

Invested

$105

Value

$83.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Both legs:

Rams$52.550¢+$6.82

Cardinals$27.550¢-$8.08

Oddstorm<$100

Rams

Invested

$51.66

Value

$50.89

PnL

-$0.77

Record

35%

143-263 (406)

Pan9X<$100

Rams

Invested

$31.6

Value

$31.6

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$49.9

Value

$25.75

PnL

+$1.85

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

BoomLaLa<$100

Rams

Invested

$3.08

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.2

Record

39%

237-370 (607)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$1.89

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

676-773 (1449)

Research grade

NeutralRams at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Rams

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.