Spread: Rams (-3.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (89%) · Rams at 56¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 15

Rams56¢Cardinals44¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 89%

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$220.37

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 56.5¢

-15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralRams at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rams56%

Cardinals44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams8 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares17,571

Combined PnL+$220.61

Cardinals1 trader

Total Value$14.16

Total Shares48

Combined PnL-$0.24

Rams — 89%Cardinals — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Ramsavg 66.3¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$40	49% 497-511 (1008)
65 6512395314597884	Ramsavg 67.1¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$94.25	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
38 38791873984189	Ramsavg 66.7¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$46.79	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ramsavg 66.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$15	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
TO topdogbigboi	Ramsavg 66.7¢	$400	$417	+$17	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
PA Pan9X	Ramsavg 66.9¢	$203.24	$211.27	+$8.03	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
NO NotJump	Ramsavg 50¢	$205	$167.54	-$0.46	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
RN1<$100	Ramsavg 67¢	$32.14	$32.14	+$0	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 30¢	$14.4	$14.16	-$0.24	47% 507-561 (1068)

Anon455

Rams

Invested

$3,980

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$40

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

6512395314597884

Rams

Invested

$2,650.97

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$94.25

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

38791873984189

Rams

Invested

$2,450.85

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$46.79

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Rams

Invested

$1,861

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$15

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

topdogbigboi

Rams

Invested

$400

Value

$417

PnL

+$17

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

Pan9X

Rams

Invested

$203.24

Value

$211.27

PnL

+$8.03

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

NotJump

Rams

Invested

$205

Value

$167.54

PnL

-$0.46

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

RN1<$100

Rams

Invested

$32.14

Value

$32.14

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.16

PnL

-$0.24

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

Research grade

NeutralRams at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Rams

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.