Spread: Rams (-2.5)

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (11%) · Rams at 94¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Rams94¢Cardinals6¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 11%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Research grade

NeutralRams at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rams94%

Cardinals6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams1 trader

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,500

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Cardinals8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,534

Combined PnL-$50.1

Rams — 11%Cardinals — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Ramsavg 68.2¢	$3.8K	$5.2K	+$1.4K	30% 30-69 (99)
RN1CTR	Cardinalsavg 31¢	$770.04	$782.46	+$12.42	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
AN Anon455CTR	Cardinalsavg 32¢	$630.69	$640.8	+$10.11	50% 501-511 (1012)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Cardinalsavg 31.5¢	$127.78	$131.88	+$4.1	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Cardinalsavg 35¢	$175	$105	-$70	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Cardinalsavg 47¢	$111.2	$77.75	+$0.55	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 47¢	$58.7	$40.63	-$18.08
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 50¢	$27.5	$37.13	+$18.63
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 22¢	$29.04	$27.72	-$1.32	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 35¢	$7.12	$4.27	-$2.85	57% 3689-2778 (6467)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 35¢	$6.65	$3.99	-$2.66	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
PR primmCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 31¢	$2.11	$2.22	+$0.1	59% 1193-837 (2030)

lightotunnel35

Rams

Invested

$3,751.12

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

30%

30-69 (99)

RN1CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$770.04

Value

$782.46

PnL

+$12.42

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

Anon455CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$630.69

Value

$640.8

PnL

+$10.11

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

6512395314597884CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$127.78

Value

$131.88

PnL

+$4.1

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$175

Value

$105

PnL

-$70

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

NotJumpARB<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$111.2

Value

$77.75

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

Both legs:

Cardinals$58.747¢-$18.08

Rams$27.550¢+$18.63

38791873984189CTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$29.04

Value

$27.72

PnL

-$1.32

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$7.12

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$2.85

Record

57%

3689-2778 (6467)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$6.65

Value

$3.99

PnL

-$2.66

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

primmCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$2.11

Value

$2.22

PnL

+$0.1

Record

59%

1193-837 (2030)

Research grade

NeutralRams at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.