Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rams, while the market favors Cardinals (53%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Rams (-10.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (70%) · Rams at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Rams48¢Cardinals52¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 70%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$13.76

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 47.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralRams at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Cardinals 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rams48%

Cardinals53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cardinals3 traders

Total Value$639.43

Total Shares1,218

Combined PnL-$14.1

Rams7 traders

Total Value$887.69

Total Shares1,856

Combined PnL+$27.86

Cardinals — 30%Rams — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRams 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRams 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Rams 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Cardinalsavg 53.7¢	$583.53	$570.71	-$12.81	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
VE VenusianCTR	Ramsavg 46¢	$233.36	$243.51	+$10.15	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Ramsavg 47¢	$239.36	$241.91	+$2.55	42% 624-853 (1477)
fyrskenCTR	Ramsavg 46¢	$184	$192	+$8	48% 70-77 (147)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Ramsavg 46¢	$111.32	$116.16	+$4.84	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Ramsavg 48¢	$48.54	$48.03	-$0.51	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Cardinalsavg 53¢	$47.32	$46.88	-$0.45	47% 236-261 (497)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Ramsavg 45¢	$40.95	$43.68	+$2.73	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cardinalsavg 54¢	$22.68	$21.84	-$0.84	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Ramsavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.4	+$0.1	38% 1401-2279 (3680)

38791873984189

Cardinals

Invested

$583.53

Value

$570.71

PnL

-$12.81

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

VenusianCTR

Rams

Invested

$233.36

Value

$243.51

PnL

+$10.15

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

BreakTheBankCTR

Rams

Invested

$239.36

Value

$241.91

PnL

+$2.55

Record

42%

624-853 (1477)

fyrskenCTR

Rams

Invested

$184

Value

$192

PnL

+$8

Record

48%

70-77 (147)

MadridTimeCTR

Rams

Invested

$111.32

Value

$116.16

PnL

+$4.84

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

suntoriCTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$48.54

Value

$48.03

PnL

-$0.51

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

glennyorkshire<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$47.32

Value

$46.88

PnL

-$0.45

Record

47%

236-261 (497)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$40.95

Value

$43.68

PnL

+$2.73

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

Pan9X<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$22.68

Value

$21.84

PnL

-$0.84

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

LimousinCTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.1

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

Research grade

NeutralRams at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Cardinals 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRams 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRams 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Rams 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.