Chiefs vs. Falcons: O/U 58.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 98¢ · $809 held · ended Nov 15

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 22%

Total Value

$809.35

Combined PnL

$104.11

Smart Money Entry

77.1¢ → 97.9¢

+27% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$456.17

Total Shares638

Combined PnL-$35.99

Over7 traders

Total Value$353.18

Total Shares2,244

Combined PnL+$140.1

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Underavg 77¢	$456.61	$424	-$32.61	49% 486-502 (988)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 23¢	$136.39	$169.01	+$32.62	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$9	$85.5	+$76.5	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$31.7	$43.02	+$11.32	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 79¢	$35.55	$32.18	-$3.38	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$18.3	$24.4	+$6.1	58% 4023-2943 (6966)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$1.5	$14.25	+$12.75	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$11.47	$10.71	-$0.76	48% 1314-1407 (2721)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$4.73	$6.31	+$1.58	46% 888-1048 (1936)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$456.61

Value

$424

PnL

-$32.61

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$136.39

Value

$169.01

PnL

+$32.62

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$85.5

PnL

+$76.5

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.7

Value

$43.02

PnL

+$11.32

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$35.55

Value

$32.18

PnL

-$3.38

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.3

Value

$24.4

PnL

+$6.1

Record

58%

4023-2943 (6966)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.5

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$12.75

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.47

Value

$10.71

PnL

-$0.76

Record

48%

1314-1407 (2721)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.73

Value

$6.31

PnL

+$1.58

Record

46%

888-1048 (1936)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.