Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Falcons, while the market favors Chiefs (95%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Falcons (-14.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (89%) · Falcons at 5.5¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Falcons6¢Chiefs94¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$12.14

Smart Money Entry

5.2¢ → 5.5¢

+6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidFalcons at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Chiefs 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Falcons6%

Chiefs95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs1 trader

Total Value$499.99

Total Shares526

Combined PnL-$0

Falcons8 traders

Total Value$723.47

Total Shares14,171

Combined PnL-$12.14

Chiefs — 11%Falcons — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFalcons 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Falcons 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Falconsavg 5.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$66.25	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 5.5¢	$764.16	$689.63	-$58.25
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 93¢	$367.95	$375.86	-$8
XT xtxpleasecallme	Chiefsavg 95¢	$499.99	$499.99	-$0	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
FO forecastication4CTR	Falconsavg 5.1¢	$502.34	$492.75	-$9.59	36% 201-360 (561)
AN Anon455CTR	Falconsavg 5¢	$100	$100	+$0	49% 482-499 (981)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Falconsavg 5.7¢	$94.25	$91.22	-$3.03	18% 63-281 (344)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Falconsavg 6¢	$15.18	$16.45	+$1.27	50% 747-737 (1484)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Falconsavg 5.8¢	$11.61	$10.05	-$1.56	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Falconsavg 6¢	$8.15	$8.83	+$0.68	35% 635-1160 (1795)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Falconsavg 6¢	$2.88	$2.88	-$0	44% 337-422 (759)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Falconsavg 6¢	$1.2	$1.3	+$0.1	50% 4045-4053 (8098)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Falcons

Invested

$1,168.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$66.25

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

Both legs:

Falcons$764.165.5¢-$58.25

Chiefs$367.9593¢-$8

xtxpleasecallme

Chiefs

Invested

$499.99

Value

$499.99

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

forecastication4CTR

Falcons

Invested

$502.34

Value

$492.75

PnL

-$9.59

Record

36%

201-360 (561)

Anon455CTR

Falcons

Invested

$100

Value

$100

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

482-499 (981)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$94.25

Value

$91.22

PnL

-$3.03

Record

18%

63-281 (344)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$15.18

Value

$16.45

PnL

+$1.27

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$11.61

Value

$10.05

PnL

-$1.56

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$8.15

Value

$8.83

PnL

+$0.68

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$2.88

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$0

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

4045-4053 (8098)

Research grade

AvoidFalcons at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Chiefs 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFalcons 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Falcons 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.