Spread: Chiefs (-9.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (46%) · Falcons at 68¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Chiefs33¢Falcons67¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 46%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 67.5¢

+29% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs33%

Falcons68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falcons6 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares10,415

Combined PnL+$2.1

Chiefs7 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares10,418

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Falcons — 46%Chiefs — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrChiefs 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Chiefs 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Falconsavg 52¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$0	30% 30-69 (99)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Chiefsavg 48¢	$3.6K	$2.5K	$-1.2K	58% 4023-2943 (6966)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Chiefsavg 48¢	$746.63	$748.65	+$2.02	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Chiefsavg 47.9¢	$302.22	$303.02	+$0.8	51% 572-546 (1118)
dips.CTR	Chiefsavg 48¢	$234.72	$158.93	-$75.79	48% 1314-1407 (2721)
38 38791873984189<$100	Falconsavg 71¢	$71	$52	-$19	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Chiefsavg 48¢	$70.56	$47.78	-$22.79	49% 1237-1284 (2521)
VE Venusian<$100	Falconsavg 48¢	$26.46	$37.21	+$10.75	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
LI LightParadox<$100	Falconsavg 48¢	$26.46	$37.21	+$10.75	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
NO NotJump<$100	Falconsavg 53¢	$33.77	$32.7	-$1.07	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 47¢	$30.58	$31.23	+$0.65	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 46¢	$11.5	$8.13	-$3.38	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100	Falconsavg 47¢	$3.31	$3.98	+$0.67	49% 548-579 (1127)

lightotunnel35

Falcons

Invested

$5,275.97

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

30-69 (99)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$3,629.33

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

58%

4023-2943 (6966)

6512395314597884CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$746.63

Value

$748.65

PnL

+$2.02

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$302.22

Value

$303.02

PnL

+$0.8

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

dips.CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$234.72

Value

$158.93

PnL

-$75.79

Record

48%

1314-1407 (2721)

38791873984189<$100

Falcons

Invested

$71

Value

$52

PnL

-$19

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

cm2897CTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$70.56

Value

$47.78

PnL

-$22.79

Record

49%

1237-1284 (2521)

Venusian<$100

Falcons

Invested

$26.46

Value

$37.21

PnL

+$10.75

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

LightParadox<$100

Falcons

Invested

$26.46

Value

$37.21

PnL

+$10.75

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

NotJump<$100

Falcons

Invested

$33.77

Value

$32.7

PnL

-$1.07

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$30.58

Value

$31.23

PnL

+$0.65

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

LimousinCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$11.5

Value

$8.13

PnL

-$3.38

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100

Falcons

Invested

$3.31

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.67

Record

49%

548-579 (1127)

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrChiefs 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Chiefs 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.