Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (36%) · Falcons at 63¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Chiefs38¢Falcons62¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$680.68

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 62.5¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs38%

Falcons63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falcons4 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,985

Combined PnL+$49.96

Chiefs7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares7,941

Combined PnL-$730.64

Falcons — 36%Chiefs — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Falconsavg 61¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$76.62	30% 30-69 (99)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Chiefsavg 39¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$75.75	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 39¢	$894.7	$929.11	+$34.41
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 52¢	$286.6	$327.94	+$41.34
RN1	Falconsavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$98.12	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
PR primmCTR	Chiefsavg 55¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$491.4	59% 1183-828 (2011)
AN Anon455CTR	Chiefsavg 38.5¢	$881.68	$934.62	+$52.93	49% 486-502 (988)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Chiefsavg 51.1¢	$1.0K	$741.55	-$269.67	51% 572-546 (1118)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Chiefsavg 39¢	$195	$202.5	+$7.5	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
65 6512395314597884	Falconsavg 45¢	$124.03	$172.1	+$48.06	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
TA takeormakeCTR	Chiefsavg 49¢	$166.6	$127.5	-$39.1	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 47.9¢	$77.22	$53.07	-$0.37	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
38 38791873984189	Falconsavg 51¢	$166.22	$50.52	+$23.4	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 40.2¢	$58.64	$22.18	+$9.47	50% 2197-2203 (4400)

lightotunnel35

Falcons

Invested

$3,053.05

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$76.62

Record

30%

30-69 (99)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$1,181.31

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$75.75

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

Both legs:

Chiefs$894.739¢+$34.41

Falcons$286.652¢+$41.34

RN1

Falcons

Invested

$1,237.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$98.12

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

primmCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$1,544.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$491.4

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

Anon455CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$881.68

Value

$934.62

PnL

+$52.93

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$1,011.21

Value

$741.55

PnL

-$269.67

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$195

Value

$202.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

6512395314597884

Falcons

Invested

$124.03

Value

$172.1

PnL

+$48.06

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

takeormakeCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$166.6

Value

$127.5

PnL

-$39.1

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$77.22

Value

$53.07

PnL

-$0.37

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

38791873984189

Falcons

Invested

$166.22

Value

$50.52

PnL

+$23.4

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$58.64

Value

$22.18

PnL

+$9.47

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.