Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)

4 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (25%) · Chiefs at 72¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Chiefs72¢Falcons28¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$312.8

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 72¢

+32% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

4 of 16 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs72%

Falcons28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,050

Combined PnL+$910.69

Falcons12 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares5,792

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Chiefs — 25%Falcons — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-58 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFalcons 67% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons 75% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Chiefsavg 47.7¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$683.63	59% 1193-836 (2029)
RN1ARB<$100	Falconsavg 51.7¢	$1.7K	$1.0K	-$630.05	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 51.7¢	$1.5K	$802.73	-$706.34
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 50¢	$169.55	$245.85	+$76.3
JU justaluckydude	Chiefsavg 59.2¢	$715.66	$876.55	+$160.89	50% 663-662 (1325)
TA takeormake	Chiefsavg 66.3¢	$698.38	$764.15	+$65.77	57% 3683-2777 (6460)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Falconsavg 61.6¢	$731.86	$344.49	-$387.37	69% 1741-780 (2521)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Falconsavg 40.4¢	$483.1	$329.11	-$153.99	49% 2881-2944 (5825)
38 38791873984189CTR	Falconsavg 61¢	$615.3	$258.95	-$331.19	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Falconsavg 45.7¢	$353.79	$212.69	-$141.1	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Falconsavg 32¢	$194.04	$166.82	-$27.22	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Falconsavg 50.3¢	$188.88	$103.28	-$85.6	47% 667-767 (1434)
AN Anon455CTR	Falconsavg 46.2¢	$145.95	$86.9	-$59.05	49% 497-511 (1008)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Falconsavg 29¢	$70.47	$66.83	-$3.64	55% 788-651 (1439)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Chiefsavg 67.3¢	$28.33	$28.73	+$0.4	39% 1625-2578 (4203)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Falconsavg 49.6¢	$68.74	$28.47	-$21.9	50% 1182-1198 (2380)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Falconsavg 58.1¢	$29.37	$12.83	-$4.54	50% 2214-2221 (4435)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Falconsavg 59¢	$13.57	$6.67	-$6.9	39% 237-370 (607)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Falconsavg 32¢	$7.04	$6.05	-$0.99	46% 1011-1210 (2221)

primm

Chiefs

Invested

$1,314.09

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$683.63

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

RN1ARB<$100

Falcons

Invested

$1,678.62

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$630.05

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

Both legs:

Falcons$1,509.0751.7¢-$706.34

Chiefs$169.5550¢+$76.3

justaluckydude

Chiefs

Invested

$715.66

Value

$876.55

PnL

+$160.89

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

takeormake

Chiefs

Invested

$698.38

Value

$764.15

PnL

+$65.77

Record

57%

3683-2777 (6460)

SunlineTickerCTR

Falcons

Invested

$731.86

Value

$344.49

PnL

-$387.37

Record

69%

1741-780 (2521)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Falcons

Invested

$483.1

Value

$329.11

PnL

-$153.99

Record

49%

2881-2944 (5825)

38791873984189CTR

Falcons

Invested

$615.3

Value

$258.95

PnL

-$331.19

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

6512395314597884CTR

Falcons

Invested

$353.79

Value

$212.69

PnL

-$141.1

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Falcons

Invested

$194.04

Value

$166.82

PnL

-$27.22

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Falcons

Invested

$188.88

Value

$103.28

PnL

-$85.6

Record

47%

667-767 (1434)

Anon455CTR

Falcons

Invested

$145.95

Value

$86.9

PnL

-$59.05

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$70.47

Value

$66.83

PnL

-$3.64

Record

55%

788-651 (1439)

topdogbigboi<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$28.33

Value

$28.73

PnL

+$0.4

Record

39%

1625-2578 (4203)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$68.74

Value

$28.47

PnL

-$21.9

Record

50%

1182-1198 (2380)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$29.37

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$4.54

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$13.57

Value

$6.67

PnL

-$6.9

Record

39%

237-370 (607)

lryyyCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$7.04

Value

$6.05

PnL

-$0.99

Record

46%

1011-1210 (2221)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

4 of 16 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-58 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFalcons 67% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons 75% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.