Spread: Chiefs (-14.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (64%) · Falcons at 65¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Chiefs36¢Falcons64¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 64%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$7.31

Smart Money Entry

68.6¢ → 64.5¢

-6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs36%

Falcons65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falcons7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,686

Combined PnL-$86.43

Chiefs4 traders

Total Value$636.28

Total Shares1,725

Combined PnL+$93.74

Falcons — 64%Chiefs — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFalcons 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Falcons 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AV averagejoetraders	Falconsavg 66¢	$660	$635	-$25	55% 788-651 (1439)
TA takeormakeCTR	Chiefsavg 33.1¢	$500.85	$553.03	+$52.18	57% 3683-2777 (6460)
AN Anon455	Falconsavg 77.3¢	$232.19	$190.78	-$41.41	49% 497-511 (1008)
38 38791873984189	Falconsavg 69¢	$207	$190.5	-$16.5	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 18¢	$34.46	$76.58	+$42.12	38% 1404-2275 (3679)
PA Pan9X<$100	Falconsavg 69.3¢	$42.29	$38.74	-$3.55	50% 2214-2221 (4435)
PA pauleta23<$100	Falconsavg 66¢	$10	$9.62	-$0.38	43% 574-770 (1344)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Chiefsavg 39.4¢	$5.23	$4.85	-$0.38	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Falconsavg 59.4¢	$4.38	$4.69	+$0.31	39% 1625-2578 (4203)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 40¢	$2	$1.83	-$0.18	50% 663-662 (1325)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Falconsavg 59¢	$1.44	$1.55	+$0.11	50% 4064-4063 (8127)

averagejoetraders

Falcons

Invested

$660

Value

$635

PnL

-$25

Record

55%

788-651 (1439)

takeormakeCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$500.85

Value

$553.03

PnL

+$52.18

Record

57%

3683-2777 (6460)

Anon455

Falcons

Invested

$232.19

Value

$190.78

PnL

-$41.41

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

38791873984189

Falcons

Invested

$207

Value

$190.5

PnL

-$16.5

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

VenusianCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$34.46

Value

$76.58

PnL

+$42.12

Record

38%

1404-2275 (3679)

Pan9X<$100

Falcons

Invested

$42.29

Value

$38.74

PnL

-$3.55

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

pauleta23<$100

Falcons

Invested

$10

Value

$9.62

PnL

-$0.38

Record

43%

574-770 (1344)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$5.23

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.38

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

topdogbigboi<$100

Falcons

Invested

$4.38

Value

$4.69

PnL

+$0.31

Record

39%

1625-2578 (4203)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

6512395314597884<$100

Falcons

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFalcons 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Falcons 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.